No second wave in sight in Occitania, but signals to watch for

• While cases of clusters are increasing in France, in Occitania the circulation of the virus remains low.
• Small signals, such as the return of cases in intensive care, makes fear a possible second wave if the barrier gestures are not respected.

The risk of seeing France affected by a second wave of coronavirus contamination has been in the news for the past few days. Between the discovery of new clusters and the detection of traces of Covid-19 in wastewater, the health services are on alert.

In Occitania, "the level of circulation of the virus is low," says Stéphanie Rivière, epidemiologist within the regional branch of Public Health France. The positivity rate of screening tests was indeed last week of 0.6% when it is on national average of 1.3%. And the screening rate was 420.5 per 100,000 inhabitants, a little lower than on the whole national territory.

Do not lower your guard against #Coronavirus! There is a tendency to increase the circulation of the virus even if it remains at a low level. To find out more 👉 https://t.co/RiZOpzWYIR pic.twitter.com/3Ggwl2GDCT

From June 29 to July 5, 128 new people tested positive for Covid-19 throughout Occitania, including 52 in Haute-Garonne and 40 in Gard, two departments where the largest clusters have been identified. last weeks. “They are still being investigated and a few cases are back. We also have a few sporadic cases too, ”continues the specialist.

But the fortnight and the detection of contact cases thanks to the tests make it possible to control these clusters, even if in both cases the populations which compose it are more mobile, whether seasonal workers in Gard or the Roma community in Toulouse agglomeration.

"If the barrier gestures are not maintained, it will start again"

If the indicators are not heralding for the moment a second wave in Occitania, "we must not let go, if the barrier gestures are not maintained, it will start again, it is in the hands of the citizens", ensures Stéphanie Rivière.

An observation shared by Pierre Delobel, head of the infectious and tropical diseases department of the Toulouse University Hospital. “There are small signals. We thus had two new hospitalizations in intensive care this week whereas we had none last month. We have also received some positive cases in the emergency room, ”insists the practitioner, whose service still welcomes ten people whose situation does not require ventilation.

[#coronavirus] The virus has not gone on vacation. It is still circulating in #Occitanie (117 cases confirmed this week). For a carefree summer, continue to protect yourself and be vigilant to protect your loved ones.
📌Check the latest summary bulletin @ARS_OC: pic.twitter.com/8dE2IQgKgQ

For this specialist, these hospitalizations remain a “late marker”. If today the measures taken to test are effective, he regrets that these capacities are not used more.

Especially since the population of Occitania is very far from the standards for collective immunity. Because if a large part of the patients does not develop a serious form of the disease, or even has no symptoms, this one not having circulated much in the region, we are far from the 60% of infected people who would contribute to the disappearance of the virus.

"The problem of the circulation of the virus will not be confined to a cluster"

"In Occitania, we estimate today the seroprevalence [number of people exposed to the virus] at 2%, at the national level it would be 6 to 7%, with local disparities, some places being at 10 or 12 %. During confinement, our mathematical model predicted that it would be 17.5% for the region, we are not there at all, ”notes Chloé Dimeglio, biostatistician at Inserm, attached to the virology laboratory of the Toulouse University Hospital .

An overestimated seroprevalence due to asymptomatic cases estimates this researcher today. "Our hypothesis is that the number of real asymptomatic cases is lower than what we had expected and that they are also less contagious," she said. Today, it is impossible mathematically to be able to predict the outcome of the epidemic. On the other hand, she is sure of one thing: "without wearing a mask, the problem of the circulation of the virus will not necessarily be confined to a cluster", concludes Chloé Diméglio.

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• epidemic
• Covid 19
• Contamination
• Coronavirus
• Toulouse
• Health