- Emmanuel Macron's television interview on July 14 should allow us to learn more about the recovery plan that the State is preparing to raise the economy after the Covid-19 crisis.
- In a report published this Friday, WWF and the firm Ernst & Young tried to assess the benefits, especially in terms of jobs that would be to place the ecological transition at the heart of this recovery plan.
- The scenario that the NGO is pushing for, the most ambitious, would enable one million sustained jobs to be reached by 2022 and 1.8 million even by 2030, in transport, renewable energies, renovation. buildings, agriculture…
One million jobs supported by 2022 and even 1.8 million by 2030. This is what we would gain by coloring strongly in green the economic recovery plan post-Covid 19 that Emmanuel must announce Macron.
At least, this is the estimate that WWF France arrives in a report made with the audit firm Ernst & Young (EY) and published this Friday. The NGO analyzed the potential in terms of supported jobs - that is to say, maintained and created - that there would be to seize this "historic opportunity" that is the stimulus plan to invest massively in key sectors of the ecological transition. From the energy renovation of buildings to organic agriculture, via renewable energies, individual transport, public transport…
Green recovery, "the only scenario that meets the challenges"
WWF and EY have developed three prospective scenarios, each time applying a forecasting model integrating several parameters - investment, growth, etc. - to estimate the number of jobs created sector by sector.
The “trend scenario”, in which the State would not invest more in the ecological transition than the 15 billion euros it already puts today, would then only allow a slight increase in the number of jobs linked to the ecological transition. Of the current 586,000, we would pass to 588,000 in 2022 and to 631,000 in 2030. In the scenario “Current commitments”, France would be content to respect its commitments made in terms of ecological transition, whether in the Multi-annual Energy Programming *, the National Low Carbon Strategy **, or the Egalim law ***. Investment in the ecological transition would then go from 15 billion euros per year to 24 billion in 2022 and 38 in 2030. The key? 863,000 jobs from 2022 and 1.493 million in 2030.
Finally, the “Green recovery” scenario defines even more ambitious objectives for each sector than those set by current commitments. Not surprisingly, this is the one recommended by WWF, recalling that it alone would "initiate an ecological transition to meet the challenges".
[In our network 🌐]
The @WWFFrance publishes its report “World after: employment at the heart of a green recovery”.
More than 1 million jobs could be supported thanks to an ambitious #RelanceGreen from here 2022!
🧐 To read 🔽https: //t.co/3irbLFbIsZ
On the condition of much more massive investments
This third way would imply putting a lot more money on the table, since it would involve arriving at 29 billion euros per year invested in the ecological transition from 2020-2030 - or 14 more than today - and even 44 billion annually around 2030.
Significant sums therefore, "but not unrealistic", estimates Pierre Cannet, director of advocacy at WWF France. "The only subsidies for fossil fuels cost public finances 18 billion euros annually," he recalls. Above all, Pierre Cannet refers to the recovery plan of 750 billion euros, including 250 billion in loans and the rest of the subsidy, which the European Commission is proposing. "Of these amounts, France should benefit from 37 billion to distribute over the next four years [or just over 9 billion per year], he said. This amount would already cover the majority of the 14 billion additional public funding identified over the period 2020-2023 in the "Green recovery" scenario. And there are other potential levers. Green bonds, for example, which allow France to borrow almost at negative rates, the European fair transition fund, or even taxation on polluting activities. "
Up to 406,000 jobs in thermal renovation of buildings
The game would be worth the candle. In any case, this third scenario allows, according to WWF and EY, to reach this one million jobs supported in 2022 and 1.8 in 2030. "They are not relocatable and the whole territory will benefit with more than 80% of supported jobs located outside Ile-de-France in 2030, ”adds Pierre Cannet.
This “green recovery” scenario notably takes up the proposal of the Citizen's Climate Convention to make global energy renovation of buildings compulsory by 2040. This objective would make it possible to reach 278,000 jobs in the energy renovation of buildings in 2022 and 406,000 in 2030. Against 167,000 jobs today. The current building sector, mainly focused on new construction, would then switch mainly to renovating the existing one. Of the five key sectors of the energy transition taken into account by WWF, it is the one that represents the greatest source of jobs.
A job boom with the electrification of the car fleet?
The electrification of the car fleet, for its part, has the greatest potential for development. And for good reason, the sector is still in its infancy today, with only 11,000 jobs today, according to the report. “Boosting the very low-emission vehicle sector very strongly could support 328,000 jobs in 2030, which amounts to multiplying by 30 the number of jobs currently supported by the sectors linked to the production and distribution of electric and hybrid cars and the introduction of charging stations, compared to 2019, ”notes the report.
In renewable energies, the green recovery scenario would make it possible to go from 152,000 current jobs to 191,000 in 2022 then 256,000 in 2030. "These jobs mainly concern developers, equipment manufacturers, manufacturers, operators, operators of maintenance and producers of raw materials for bioenergy ”, detail the authors. The development of urban transport infrastructure and the regeneration and extension of the rail network, a subject on which WWF France insists a lot, would generate 125,000 jobs in 2022 and 137,000 in 2030, compared to 93,000 today.
Stop the bleeding in agriculture?
In the agriculture sector, this “green revival” would make it possible to halt the reduction in agricultural jobs observed in recent years. "The trend scenario is based on a 1.2% decrease in supported jobs per year, which corresponds to the trend observed since 2010, indicate WWF and EY. At this rate, "more than 100,000 jobs are lost by 2030, a decrease of 15%, the report said. We would then go from 695,000 current jobs in agriculture to 595,000 in 2030.
The green recovery scenario would aim to stem these job losses by directing subsidies in this area towards the transition to organic farming which provides more jobs ****. The ambition would then be to increase to 22% of the agricultural area useful in organic by 2022 and 44% in 2030, against 7.5% today. We would then go from 685,000 current jobs in the agricultural sector to 724,000 in 2030, including 450,000 in organic farming.
The bike to remember
Finally, the potential employment of activities around cycling should not be forgotten either, say WWF and EY. They estimate at 352,000 the number of jobs that could be achieved in 2030 by betting heavily on the development of the bicycle in France, compared to 85,000 today. "A significant part of these jobs would relate to the construction of cycle paths and bicycle parking equipment as well as the logistics sector, in particular couriers and bicycle employees of La Poste", details WWF which recommends increasing the bicycle funds from 50 to 500 million euros per year.
And if we add bicycle tourism, for which France has strong development potential, the number of jobs (accommodation, catering, rental, etc.) supported by the little queen could be even greater. We would reach 224,000 in 2030 in the "green recovery" scenario against 76,000 today.
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* The Multiannual Energy Programming (PPE) sets France's energy policy for the years that follow. The current one covers the 2019-2028 period and aims in particular to reduce fossil fuel consumption by 35% and final energy consumption by 16.5% compared to 2012, or even to reduce the share of nuclear in electricity production to 50 in 2035.
** The National Low Carbon Strategy (SNBC) fixes sector by sector the reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to be won by 2050. This roadmap sets the overall intermediate objective of reducing our emissions by 40% '' here in 2030 compared to 1990.
*** The Egalim law of October 30, 2018 sets the target of 15% of agricultural area useful in organic farming in 2022.
**** "The average number of annual work units (AWU - that is to say the working time of a full-time person for one year) is more important in an organic operation than in conventional [2.4 against 1.5, according to the diagnosis of the Ministry of Agriculture], recalls the report.
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