On July 2, the official website of the People's Government of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, posted a "Notes on the Abolition of the Policy on Restricting Purchase Restrictions" (referred to as "Description"), which stated that Huailai did not abolish the policy on restricting purchase restrictions. , Nor did it relax the regulation of the real estate market.
Since Zhangjiakou became the host city of the 2022 Winter Olympics in 2015, the war of selling rooms at the sales office has continued. It wasn't until 2017 that certain areas of Zhangjiakou were subject to purchase restrictions, and the market's enthusiasm stopped.
Today, with a three-year purchase limit, the land and house prices in Zhangjiakou have continued to fall. That year's house grabbing has become customer grabbing, and those with lower prices have become the "unspoken rules" of selling a house. As a result, the risk of those high-priced duvet covers also increased. Under the influence of the epidemic, the Zhangjiakou property market is also particularly sensitive to changes in the purchase restriction policy.
"File abolition" triggered Huailai to cancel speculation on purchase restrictions
The above description of the official website of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City pointed out that July 1st, the media published the news that Huailai County, Hebei Province, canceled the purchase restriction policy for commercial housing, which is not true. The People’s Government of Huailai County issued a report on June 10, 2020. This expiry document was abolished, but it did not abolish the purchase restriction policy, nor did it relax the regulation of the real estate market.
In fact, the incident caused the storm mainly due to the revocation of the expiry document, including the "No. 62" issued by Huailai County in December 2016, which mentioned that the non-Huilai County household registration Residents who have signed a labor contract to work for more than 2 years, paid social insurance for more than 1 year, and have proof of payment of taxes, are restricted to purchase 1 suite, and the down payment is not less than 30%. The document is regarded as Huailai's "restrictions on purchase".
In this regard, Zhang Dawei, the chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that the documents expire and there is no seamless connection of the documents, which should be temporarily lifted. Huailai is the 13th "one-day tour" policy area in the country.
Huailai is the closest area of Zhangjiakou City to Beijing. It is bordered by Yanqing District, Changping District and Mentougou District of Beijing. It is known as Beijing's "back garden" and has undertaken some of Beijing's spillover purchase needs.
In 2015, Beijing joined hands with Zhangjiakou to obtain the right to host the 2022 Winter Olympics, which provided impetus to the rise in house prices in Zhangjiakou. In particular, house prices in Zhangjiakou, represented by Chongli and Huailai, started to rise.
In Chongli County where the Winter Olympics snow project is located, the price of individual real estate jumped by more than 1,000 yuan per square meter. The unit price of some properties for sale has also increased by 300 yuan/square meter to 900 yuan/square meter. Because of insufficient supply at that time, the sales office staged a war to grab a house from time to time.
Subsequently, a new round of real estate regulation has cooled the hot market. In November 2016, Huailai took the lead in issuing a purchase restriction policy, and the policy was upgraded in December, and the number of home buyers plummeted. In March and May 2017, Chongli District and Zhangjiakou's main urban area successively issued purchase restriction policies. The market watched around and ushered in a "falling cold".
Zhangjiakou house prices continued to fall, returning to the level of 3 years ago
The purchase restriction policy has been implemented for three years. Why is the market sensitive to the "restriction on purchases"? What is the property market in Zhangjiakou? One or two can be known from the data of the organization.
According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou Fangtian Data Monitoring Center, the price of new houses in the main urban area of Zhangjiakou showed a trend of first rise and then fall from 2017 to May 2020. Whether it is Qiaodong, Qiaoxi or the Economic Development Zone, it has risen from 2017 to 2018. From 2018 to 2020, house prices continued to fall. The region with the largest decline was Qiaodong District. In 2020, compared with 2018, house prices fell by 2,603 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 17.5%. From the current point of view, house prices have fallen back 3 years ago.
According to rough statistics from a local industry source, the average house price in Qiaodong District has dropped from 12,000 yuan/square meter to the current 9,600 yuan/square meter, and the economic development zone has dropped from 12,500 yuan/square meter to the current 10,000 yuan/square meter. The Qiaoxi District has dropped from more than 10,000 yuan per square meter to the current 8,700 yuan/square meter, while the Xishan District has dropped from 8,800 yuan/square meter to about 6,000 yuan/square meter.
It is not difficult to see from the above data, "At present, the average price of houses in Zhangjiakou has decreased significantly compared with 2018 two years ago. Since the implementation of the Zhangjiakou purchase restriction policy, the regional house prices have declined by about 2,000 per square meter." Insiders said.
In fact, in September 2019, the house price of Zhangjiakou was adjusted from five digits to four digits. In 2020, the downward trend of house prices continues.
Zhangjiakoufang's world data shows that both new and second-hand housing prices have fallen in June. Among them, the average value of new house prices was 9693 yuan/square meter, down 0.48% month-on-month and 4.2% year-on-year; the average value of second-hand houses was about 8004 yuan/square meter, down 0.5% month-on-month and 6.9% year-on-year. In terms of districts and counties, Qiaodong District has the largest decline in new house prices, Huailai County has the largest month-on-month decline in second-hand housing, and Zhangbei County has the largest year-on-year decline.
According to the monitoring data of Zhuge Finding House Data Research Center, the rapid recovery period after the end of the epidemic in the national market has gradually stabilized, but Zhangjiakou has become the top ten cities in which the transaction price of second-hand housing fell, with a decrease of 0.94% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.59%.
From the perspective of market fundamentals, Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that the property market in Zhangjiakou, represented by Huailai, has developed rapidly, especially by borrowing from the Zhangjiakou Winter Olympics, but during the current epidemic, market transactions are clearly affected . Objectively, there is a clear pressure to detoxify.
Land gate volume, residential inventory growth rate of 45% this year
Before the house prices in Zhangjiakou fell, there was also a hard-to-find situation. However, from 2016 to 2018, well-known housing companies such as Country Garden, Evergrande, Poly, and Blu-ray have entered Zhangjiakou and started the enclosure movement.
The fast pace of land market supply is the most obvious feature of Zhangjiakou's successful bid for the Olympics in the past four years. "There have been too many land transfers for four or five consecutive years, and the market is seriously oversupplied. There are very few foreign housing companies that have taken land in Zhangjiakou as they did in the previous two years." Some local industry sources said.
According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou House, in 2019, 891 cases of state-owned land were transferred from 19 districts and counties in Zhangjiakou city, with a total transaction area of about 24,632 acres and a total transaction amount of about 14.705 billion yuan. The number of land transaction blocks and transaction area all hit record highs again. Among them, the total transaction volume increased by approximately 77.49%, and the total transaction area increased by 82.24%.
According to data from E-House Research Institute, as of the end of May, 57 of the 100 cities had a positive year-on-year increase in inventory. Inventories in some cities have risen by more than double digits. Although Zhangjiakou's housing price growth ranks in the bottom 10, stocks rank in the top 10 with a growth rate of 45%.
Due to the continuous sale of a large amount of land, and the speed of the demolition of the Zhangjiakou property market has not been positively driven, the demolition cycle has always been a concern in the industry.
Sorting table of year-on-year growth rate of the inventory area of newly built commercial housing in 100 cities
Land prices are not what they used to be, and high prices have become "hot potato"
It is worth noting that, although the land transaction area of Zhangjiakou rose sharply in 2019, the land transaction amount showed a downward trend.
Looking back at the land market in 2018, at the end of May 2018, Poly won the plot of Zhangjiakou Coal Machine Plant 04 with 11.21 million yuan/mu. The case is now known as Poly Central Park Project. Country Garden won the plot 05 of Zhangjiakou Coal Machine Factory for 11.3 million yuan/mu. The current case is called Country Garden·Cullinan. At that time, the historical land price of Zhangjiakou reached a new high.
Because Poly and Country Garden took the land strongly, they had heated discussions at that time. Both plots in Qiaodong District have a combined floor price of more than 6,000 yuan per square meter. At that time, the industry estimated that the house price was 14,000 yuan/square meter. According to the world information of Zhangjiakoufang, the average house price in Qiaodong District is currently 10,7777 yuan per square meter.
Previously, the fiery atmosphere in the local auction market gave the impression that “it can be photographed on the ground”, but the good times are not long, mainly due to the impact of limited purchases, especially in the limited purchase areas in the main city of Zhangjiakou, Chongli and Huailai. The capital cost of getting land for housing companies is getting higher and higher, and the regulatory review is getting stricter, and the land market is getting hotter and hotter.
According to the statistics of Zhangjiakou Real Estate, in 2019, the land transaction volume of Zhangjiakou fell by about 3.88%, which is different from the high-priced land in 2018. In 2019, Zhangjiakou's "phenomenal transaction plots" disappeared, and developers took land back to rationality.
On June 30, 2020, Joy City Holdings joined Jiangdu Construction to win three plots in Zhangjiakou Economic Development Zone with 873 million yuan. The total land area is 305 acres, and the land price is only 2.86 million yuan/mu. By comparison, in January 2019, the land on the south side of Chaoyang West Street in the Economic Development Zone has a unit price of 5.744 million yuan/mu. Although the situation of the land is different, the magnitude of the price change is a fact.
In fact, the land market and the real estate market influence each other, curbing rising housing prices, and the Zhangjiakou real estate market has entered the second half. And how do those high-priced potatoes become hot potatoes?
"At present, the Zhangjiakou market has been overdrawn in advance, and Zhangjiakou's industry is still inadequate. It is not a population-oriented city, and competition is fierce. Most of the real estate now use price wars." Local industry sources said.
Zhangjiakoufang's analysis of the world believes that with the new housing projects blossoming, customers grabbing houses become sales grabbing customers, the real estate market is struggling to move forward, and the lowest price wins customers has become the "unspoken rule" of selling houses from 2019 to the present.
In this regard, Zhang Dawei believes that the housing prices in Beijing have been reduced to suitable for the demand for housing in Beijing is relatively difficult, if open to settle down will be conducive to this part of people to transfer employment and home ownership.