China-Singapore Jingwei client, July 4 (Dong Xiangyi) Has the property market recovered? How did the real estate market perform in the first half of the year? The E-House Real Estate Research Institute released the "Commercial Report on Newly Built Commercial Housing in 40 Cities in June 2020" released on the 3rd, showing that in the first half of this year, the transaction volume of new houses in the 40 cities decreased by 18% year-on-year, and the year-on-year decline continued to narrow. The transaction volume in 6 cities including Shaoguan, Wenzhou and Hangzhou increased year-on-year, while Zhuhai, Wuhan and Xi'an experienced the largest year-on-year decline.

　　It is understood that the 40 typical cities reported above include 4 first-tier cities including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; 18 second-tier cities including Suzhou, Fuzhou, Nanjing, Qingdao and Hangzhou; and Yangzhou, Dongguan, Wenzhou, Yueyang and Wuxi Waiting for 18 third- and fourth-tier cities.

　　New latitude and longitude in the data map

In the first half of the year, the turnover of new houses in 40 cities dropped by 18% year-on-year

　　The report shows that in the first half of 2020, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial housing in 40 cities decreased by 18% year-on-year. From the perspective of single-month performance, the transaction area of ​​newly built commercial housing in City 40 increased by 12% month-on-month and 6% year-on-year; after the first year-on-year increase in transaction area in May, the transaction area of ​​City 40 continued to increase year-on-year, indicating that The real estate market is on track.

　　"In January of this year, due to the misalignment between the Spring Festival and last year, the transaction area decreased by nearly 20% year-on-year. In February, affected by the new coronary pneumonia epidemic, the sales offices of most cities in the country were closed, and sales were greatly affected. The cumulative transaction area of ​​40 cities increased year-on-year. The speed curve has plunged. Since March, sales activity in most cities has gradually returned to normal, and the cumulative decline in the total transaction area in 40 cities has narrowed for four consecutive months." The report analyzes the situation in each month.

　　In terms of regions, in the first half of this year, the cumulative decline in first-tier cities was 20% year-on-year, the cumulative decline in second-tier cities was 19% year-on-year, and the cumulative decline in third- and fourth-tier cities was 13% year-on-year.

Shaoguan leads in volume growth, Wuhan drops 46%

　　According to the report, in the first half of this year, only the six cities of Shaoguan, Wenzhou, Hangzhou, Chengdu, Xiamen and Dongguan among the 40 cities saw a year-on-year increase in the volume of newly built commercial housing, while the rest decreased year-on-year.

　　Source: "June 2020 National 40 cities new commercial housing transaction report"

　　"Shaoguan has the highest growth rate, which may be related to the relatively sluggish property market and a low transaction base in the same period last year. After this year's epidemic, the larger supply has led to a higher rate of transaction volume." The report also analyzed, "Hangzhou and Chengdu, due to new house price limits, have caused The prices of some new houses and second-hand houses are upside down. Since this year, there have been many cases of tens of thousands of people shaking, and the heat of the new house market continues unabated."

　　In the first half of the year, the top three cities with a year-on-year decline in new house transaction volume were Zhuhai, Wuhan and Xi'an. The report believes that Zhuhai eased restrictions on purchases in certain regions at the end of 2018 and the first half of 2019. The transaction area of ​​new homes in the first half of 2019 has more than doubled year-on-year. The base in the same period last year was too high, resulting in a large decline in the first half of this year.

　　According to the analysis of the report, due to the epidemic situation, there was basically no transaction volume for new houses in February and March in Wuhan, and it has gradually recovered since April. The transaction area in the first half of this year has fallen sharply.

　　In the first two years of Xi’an, under the stimulation of the New Talent Policy, the net population inflow ranked first in the country. In 2018 and the first half of 2019, the property market transactions were hot. In June, the most stringent purchase restriction policy in second-tier cities was introduced. Since then, the property market has cooled down, and transactions in the first half of this year The volume decline was second only to Zhuhai and Wuhan.

　　The report shows that in the first-tier cities, Shanghai and Shenzhen saw a smaller year-on-year decline in volume, while Beijing and Guangzhou experienced larger declines. Among the second-tier major cities, Nanjing, Qingdao, and Ningbo experienced smaller declines, while Chongqing, Changsha, and Zhengzhou experienced larger declines.

Some hot cities in the third quarter are still expected to maintain the current sales heat

　　According to incomplete statistics, after the Spring Festival, more than 10 cities across the country have experienced "policy day trips", including Guangzhou, Zhumadian, Baoji, Jinan, Haining, Liuzhou, Qingdao, Chifeng, Jingzhou and Huai'an. The terms of the relaxation of the sales policy or the reduction of the down payment have been withdrawn or adjusted. The recent rumors about Huanlai Huailai’s cancellation of the purchase restriction policy have also been rumored by the local government, indicating that the central government’s bottom line of “no housing and no speculation” is still untouchable.

　　According to the report, from a policy perspective, the tone of the central government's regulation of real estate has not changed with the outbreak. The "new infrastructure" proposed after the outbreak also tried to transform the past dependence on real estate.

　　At the same time, the central bank has also clearly reiterated the need to insist on the positioning of houses for housing, not for speculation, and the requirement of "not using real estate as a short-term stimulus to the economy" on multiple occasions and reports, to maintain the continuity of real estate financial policies , Consistency, stability.

　　In addition, from the perspective of demand for house purchases, affected by the epidemic, the income of residents in foreign trade, tourism, catering, services and other related industries also has a risk of decline, which will inhibit the demand for house purchase to a certain extent.

　　New latitude and longitude in the data map

　　The report pointed out that since March, sales activities across the country have gradually returned to normal, some luxury residential projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai have been selling hotly, and Chengdu and Hangzhou have repeatedly seen the phenomenon of new houses "shaking ten thousand people", but this is only a partial phenomenon. Most urban real estate markets The transaction gradually returned to normal, and the property market did not show obvious signs of rising or overheating.

　　Shen Xin, a researcher at the E-House Research Institute, believes that "Since May, transactions in 40 cities have been increasing year-on-year for two consecutive months, and some cities have seen a boom in property supply and sales. It is expected that some hot cities in the third quarter will still maintain the current sales heat. But in the current economy Under the environmental and policy environment, most cities' property market transactions do not have the conditions for substantial growth."

　　Shen Xin also said that after the outbreak, some cities reduced the pre-sale conditions and accelerated the approval of pre-sale certificates. It is expected that the supply of the property market will increase in the third quarter. (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)

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