Confined scalded fears the next epidemic. A study shows that the new swine flu observed in China could be the cause of the next pandemic. In any case, she would have all the features. So inevitably, while the previous pandemic is not over, that we fear the second wave in Europe, 20 Minutes wanted to know if it was, already, to start to worry.
What is this swine flu?
The virus is called G4 and is genetically descended from the H1N1 strain that caused a pandemic in 2009, according to a study published earlier this week in the American scientific journal PNAS. The authors of this study are scientists from Chinese universities and the Chinese Center for Disease Prevention and Control. Between 2011 and 2018, they carried out 30,000 nasal swabs on pigs in slaughterhouses in 10 Chinese provinces and in a veterinary hospital. This operation isolated 179 swine flu viruses.
A long-term study because swine flu is not new, it's even “regular”, says Antoine Flahault, head of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva (Switzerland) at 20 Minutes ). There is little the famous flu epidemic of 2009, therefore. But more recently, in 2018, an epidemic of African swine fever decimated the Chinese herd. The disease had spiked the price of pork, which is by far the most widely consumed meat in the country. This time, the concern lies in the fact that, according to this study, the strain observed "has all the essential traits showing a high adaptability to infect humans".
What danger for humans?
For Antoine Flahault, there is nothing to worry about for the moment, we should even avoid over-reaction: “There is a step between the observation of a new animal disease and the risk for humans. It is believed that there are still 1.6 million zoonoses that we do not know about. We're never going to keep up the alert if we worry every time. Certainly, the study showed transmission from animals to humans. But the real alert threshold is contamination between humans, which has not yet been observed in this case.
“It is also very common for zoonoses to be transmitted from animals to humans. Especially when there is a genetic proximity of the animals in question to humans, and this is the case with pigs, this is also the case with chickens, ”adds Antoine Flahault. We must therefore not underestimate the chances that this first transmission could be "a dead end" and that the virus will not then pass between humans.
Should we be afraid of everything that comes from China?
Surprising or not, China has decided to minimize the results of the study published in the United States. Asked about it, a spokesperson for Chinese diplomacy, Zhao Lijian, assured that his country would continue "to monitor the disease, raise the alarm [if necessary] and deal with it in a timely manner". She even added: “The experts concluded that the sample size cited in the report is small and not representative. Except that everyone has in mind the attitude of the Chinese authorities during the appearance of the new coronavirus: Beijing has silenced the whistleblowers and delayed the transmission of information to WHO.
But if we fear China we will be afraid for a long time, because, as Antoine Flahault explains, the country has been "a hotspot for the appearance of new zoonoses for a long time" and therefore for the appearance of the possible next pandemic. China's neighbors, like Taiwan, know this and are close by. Moreover, the director of the Institute of Global Health at the University of Geneva affirms, "we know how to closely monitor zoonoses in animals and humans". On the other hand, we “do not yet have the tools to say whether a particular virus will ultimately be transmitted from human to human”.
World
The risk of a new swine flu pandemic minimized by China
World
Worrying swine flu virus capable of causing pandemic discovered in China
- Disease
- Health
- Animals
- epidemic
- China
- Swine flu