Thursday episode (7/2/2020) from the "Scenarios" program, wondered whether Lebanon was heading towards a dead end in negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, which could lead to further deterioration and complete collapse, or would it resort to alternative solutions such as cooperation with China or formation New government?
On this subject, the professor of political science and international law Ali Fadlallah went on to say that Lebanon will not reach the point of complete collapse, but he estimated that within 5 months there will be a major collapse, considering that what prevents Lebanon from reaching a complete collapse is the presence of internal forces as well as accounts External.
Fadlallah added that the situation in Lebanon is bad, especially since negotiations with the International Monetary Fund are not moving toward the interest of Beirut, due mainly to the presence of several currents in Lebanon, indicating that the current indications do not herald the existence of a solution soon to the crisis.
For his part, the researcher at the Carnegie Institute, Muhannad Al-Haj Ali, said that the situation is collapsing in Lebanon, if the price of food commodities continues to rise and the dollar is spent, then the country will turn to a real state of collapse.
He pointed out that Lebanon is unable to reconcile the requirements of the International Fund with the loan that it aspires to achieve economic reform, because the International Monetary Fund has charted a clear path, while the Lebanese government has demonstrated that it does not have a unified position on this issue.
It is mentioned that the most prominent repercussions of the Lebanese crisis are the great fall of the local currency against the dollar and foreign currencies, and an increase in prices, poverty rates and unemployment.
With the increasing pressure on the layman and the lack of any breakthrough so far in the government's negotiations with the International Monetary Fund, the crisis is moving to a more complex level.
In the face of the scenario of complete collapse, the second scenario comes, in which Hizbullah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has offered an economic alternative based on orientation to move the Lebanese economy and its development and cooperation with countries such as China and Iran, and other countries he did not name.
It remains that the government of Hassan Diab will have to pass its arduous negotiations successfully with the International Monetary Fund and obtain the financial loan. Otherwise, the scenario of heading towards forming a new government that enjoys financial support from its Arab environment and effective western countries will be in place.