In the first half of this year, the Beijing market continued to be constrained by the epidemic, and the trend of the second-hand housing market was also twists and turns. Institutional statistics show that in the first six months of this year, the total number of second-hand housing online signings in Beijing was 67,000, a decrease of 8.2% from the same period last year, a new low in six years. The average transaction price of second-hand housing decreased by 2.3% from the same period last year, but showed in the second quarter Stop and rebound trend.
Entering the second half of the year, the industry expects that the pressure on the market will be parallel, and if the second wave of the epidemic is effectively controlled, the postponed demand is expected to be released steadily in the fourth quarter.
Volume: 67,000 sets of second-hand housing nets signed in the first half of the year, down 8.2% year-on-year
According to statistics from the Shell Research Institute and Maitian Real Estate, the total number of second-hand housing network signings in Beijing in the first half of this year was 67,000, down 8.2% from the same period last year. Looking at the data for the first half of the year alone, the number of online signings in the first half of this year is the lowest since 2015.
Compared with other first-tier cities, the recovery of the second-hand housing market in Beijing in the first half of the year showed the characteristics of slow rhythm, weak strength, and rapid decline. The impact of the epidemic on each city is similar, and the recovery rate of Beijing is significantly lower than that of other first-tier cities, and the market turnover fluctuates according to the level of the epidemic.
Specifically, in the first two months of the year due to the Spring Festival holiday and epidemic situation, Beijing's second-hand housing transactions decreased by 57% year-on-year. After March, with the improvement of the domestic epidemic situation, the level of prevention and control was lowered, and the transaction continued to recover. The increase rate in April and May reached 71% and 41%. In May, the policy changes of the Xicheng School District further stimulated the release of demand, and the actual transaction in that month reached the highest level of single-month transaction volume after the March 17th regulation in 2017. However, by June, due to the recurrence of the Beijing epidemic, the transaction fell 35% month-on-month.
Focusing on a single month, statistics from I Love My Family and Beijing Central Plains show that Beijing's second-hand residential homes signed 17,309 units online in June, up 7% month-on-month and up 47% year-on-year. The number of second-hand housing market subscriptions has risen for four consecutive months, reaching a peak in the past two years.
However, due to the lag of online signing, in fact, the market activity in June dropped significantly compared to May. According to the actual monitoring data of Beijing wheat field, the trading volume in June dropped at a high level, and the actual trading volume decreased by 32% compared with May. In addition, judging from the data I signed for my family, the number of orders signed in June also fell by 32.33% month-on-month and increased by 28.84% year-on-year. The market performance was better than that of the same period last year, but there was a significant decline from May.
In terms of urban areas, the data from Shell Research Institute shows that the area with the fastest-growing volume in the first half of the year was Yizhuang Development Zone, with an increase of 12%, ranking first in the 13 areas; Dongcheng District had the largest decline, reaching 32%. From the perspective of repair rhythm, the first round of growth was initiated by peripheral urban areas, represented by Yizhuang Development Zone, Mentougou, Daxing, and Changping District. The increase from March to April was greater than the city's average increase of 158%. It was then relayed by Xicheng District, with an increase of nearly 2.5 times the city's average.
"After the epidemic, Beijing's second-hand housing transaction repair has three major motivations." The Shell Research Institute believes that the proportion of loans used by second-hand housing customers in the first half of the year was 74%, which was basically the same month-on-month, and the monthly float was within 3%. The loan ratio was stable. The first and second sets of average mortgage interest rates continued to decline as LPR declined, and the cost of capital decreased to attract demand to enter the market.
In addition, policy changes in the Xicheng School District have also driven some parents to enter the market ahead of schedule. In May, the volume of Xicheng District's transaction volume and the year-on-year growth rate exceeded 120%, and the proportion in the city rose from 7% to 12%. At the same time, the increase in transactions in the West City drove other trading entities on the house swap chain to enter the market, promoting an increase in the city's transaction volume.
Price: The price stopped rising in the second quarter, and the market is still in the downtrend
In terms of housing prices, data from the Shell Research Institute showed that the average transaction price of second-hand houses in Beijing fell 2.3% from the same period last year and 0.7% from the same period in 2018. However, in terms of stages, the average transaction price in the second quarter rose by 6.0% compared with the first quarter, which was the first stop in the rise since the third quarter of last year.
The reason why the average transaction price in the second quarter rose, the Shell Research Institute pointed out that it was mainly because after the epidemic stabilized, the increase in transaction volume led to price volatility. From the perspective of the price index, the monthly price index fluctuated within 2% in the first half of the year, and the market price The overall performance is stable.
In terms of total price, the upward momentum of the price of improved products is stronger than that of just-needed products. The average price of products below 3 million yuan fell by 7% year-on-year, the average price of products from 4.5 million to 7.5 million fell within 2%, and the average price of products above 7.5 million rose slightly by 1%.
In terms of area, the owner's expectations for large-area products are stronger than those for small-area products. Judging from the half-year growth rate, the price increase of large-sized products accounted for a larger percentage increase, and the increase of products above 180 square meters reached 14 percentage points. Compared with the same period last year, only the price increase of products above 180 square meters accounted for a higher proportion than the same period last year, with the highest point reaching 24%.
In terms of location, the average price drop in the peripheral urban areas in the first half of the year was relatively more obvious. For example, in Daxing, Fangshan, Mentougou, Shunyi, Tongzhou District, the average price in the first quarter of 2020 fell by more than 10% from the average price in 2017. The cumulative decline in Mentougou was 17%.
While the average transaction price stopped falling and rebounded, the housing transaction cycle was still at a high level. The client transaction cycle remained high for nearly three years, and fluctuated slightly in the last three months around 100 days.
Industry: Volume and price were basically stable year-on-year
In the view of Shell Research Institute, the first half of the Beijing market experienced four stages: freezing period, recovery period, policy stimulus period, and epidemic recurrence period. The main impact of the epidemic on the market was the postponement of demand release nodes, and overall stability in market expectations and market sentiment.
So, now that the second half of the year has arrived, what development trend will the second-hand housing market in Beijing present? In this regard, the Shell Research Institute believes that in terms of upward momentum, there is still room for loose monetary policy in the second half of the year, the credit line is sufficient, the loan cycle (43 days in May) is also at the lowest level since 2019, and it is expected that the mortgage interest rate will continue with LPR At the same time, the demand for house purchases will be postponed due to the suppression of the epidemic, and the need for people to enhance asset preservation will further increase. It is expected that the risk-averse house purchases of middle and high income groups will also increase.
However, it also faces downward pressure in the second half of the year. The Shell Research Institute pointed out that in the first half of the year, the turnover of new houses in Beijing fell by about 30% year-on-year. Considering the dual pressure of new house inventory and annual sales tasks, the second half of the year is expected to reduce the volume of new houses.
Based on this, the Shell Research Institute pointed out that after the Beijing prevention and control level was raised to the second-level response again, the postponed demand is expected to be released steadily in the fourth quarter, and the overall transaction volume in the second half of the year is stable. From the perspective of house price expectations index, large-scale improvement products are expected to be relatively good. In the steady state of market demand and expectations, it is expected that the annual average price will continue the stable situation in 2019 year-on-year.
Maitian Real Estate believes that due to the uncertainties in the timing of epidemic prevention and control, the Beijing second-hand housing market is also facing certain uncertainties. However, according to the market performance in the first half of the year, the demand that should be released was only late, but it will not disappear. As the epidemic situation improves, the backlog of market demand will be released one after another.
I love my family also said that after the epidemic has eased, the Beijing second-hand housing market can still quickly return to normal trend, but this year's volume and price level is expected to be difficult to exceed May and June.
Beijing News reporter Zhang Xiaolan