Sino-Singapore Jingwei client, July 3 (Dong Xiangyi) Half of 2020 has passed. Affected by the epidemic, the real estate market is still in a period of restoration and adjustment. A few days ago, the data released by real estate research institutions showed that the number of policies for stabilizing the property market nationwide in the first half of this year was 304, up 21% year-on-year, and also refreshed the historical record of the number of adjustments in six months .
It should be pointed out here that the policy of stabilizing the property market is also a property market regulation policy. In the context of adhering to the position of “housing, housing and no speculation”, the intensive release of talent policies in the first half of this year has become the main method of fine-tuning local policies.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Up to 304 policies to stabilize the property market in the first half of the year
Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that the cumulative number of real estate control policies in the first half of this year was 304, and that in the first half of 2019 was 251. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, real estate regulation and control policies have been intensive and frequent, with a year-on-year increase of 21%, which also refreshed the historical record of half a year of regulation and control.
The data shows that on the basis of real estate regulation reaching 238 times from January to April, with the stability of the real estate market, the number of real estate policies in May decreased significantly. In total, there were 35 relevant real estate policy adjustments nationwide, while the number of real estate regulation policies in June Only 31 times.
Zhang Dawei, Chief Analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters at Sino-Singapore Jingwei, "In the face of the epidemic in 2020, all countries have basically chosen to "release water" to rescue the market. For the most watched real estate market in China, the frequent policy outbursts have become the largest Features."
He pointed out that most of the real estate policies in May-June are still focused on talent policies, and the overall real estate market has shown a steady upward trend. Except for a few cities such as Beijing, the impact of the epidemic has basically disappeared from May to June.
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Super 120 City released talent policy
At the beginning of the year, an unexpected epidemic hit the real estate market with signs of recovery. As the epidemic stabilized, the resumption of production and production in various places continued to advance, and the real estate market stabilized and rebounded.
Since May, talent policies have been introduced in many places, and favorable policies such as settlement without barriers, settlement before re-employment, etc. have frequently warmed the property market, and some regions have given reasonable purchase qualifications and purchase subsidies.
According to the statistics of Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center, over 120 cities have issued various talent policies in the first half of the year to attract talents and labor. The housing subsidy policies supporting the talent policies are also showing a trend .
In terms of settlement, more than 35 provinces and cities have experienced a blowout of settlement policies, and more than 35 provinces have issued easing policies for settlement. Most cities that have introduced a new policy on talents have fully liberalized restrictions on the settlement of academic talents. “No threshold for settlement”, “First settlement and then employment”, and “relatives can be trusted” have become the three major keywords. Taking Shenyang as an example, in early April of this year, Shenyang City issued seven supplementary opinions to completely abolish the restrictions on the settlement of talents and further liberalize the settlement policies, and truly realize the "zero threshold" for talents to settle down.
It is worth mentioning that although the policy content of the property market loosening varies from place to place, most of them have a "one-day tour" phenomenon. It is found that since this year, at least 12 real estate easing policies in Guangzhou, Zhumadian, Baoji, Jinan, Haining, Liuzhou, Qingdao, Chifeng, Jingzhou and Huaian have been suspended or adjusted.
According to recent news, the property market regulation policy in Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City, Hebei Province has been loosened, and the housing purchase restriction policy has been abolished. On July 1, the staff of the Housing and Urban-Rural Planning and Construction Office of Huailai County, Zhangjiakou City responded to the media on the matter, saying that the so-called news of lifting the purchase restriction was false.
Zhang Dawei told reporters from China-Singapore Jingwei: "This means that although the property market has one city and one policy, policies adopted by local governments for the local property market are still too arbitrary, and some policies have clearly touched the bottom line of the policy, violating the principle of housing and housing."
New latitude and longitude in the data map
Expert: It is expected that the door to real estate regulation is unlikely to open
This year’s “Government Work Report” puts forward that we insist on the positioning of houses for living, not for speculation, and take measures according to the city to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
From the perspective of real estate financial supervision, "tightness" is still the main tone. Trust and bond issuance and other real estate financing channels have narrowed. Bank credit funds or funds have entered the property market through trust and other channels to tighten. The central bank has also reiterated many times-insisting that the house is used for living, not for speculation; not to use real estate as a short-term stimulus to the economy; to maintain the continuity, consistency, and stability of real estate financial policies.
Regarding the trend of the property market in the second half of the year, Zhang Dawei believes that the possibility of opening the door of real estate regulation and control is not likely to be opened. The key to whether the property market buys a house or not depends on credit and talent. How big are the two windows. The world is releasing water, and the standards for identifying talents will become lower and lower. Policies in these two directions are expected to be the mainstream policies in the market in 2020.
58 Zhang Bo, Dean of the Anju Guest House Research Institute analyzed: "Under the policy guidance of housing and housing speculation, and the city's policy, in the first half of 2020, the property market has maintained a stable development under the significant impact of the epidemic. The degree of relaxation will remain cautious, especially for demand-side policies, such as the government's room for loosening, which involves down payment ratios, purchase restrictions, and loan restrictions."
Zhang Bo predicts that there will be a round of plate rotation in the third quarter. Some cities with hot sales in April and May will return to normal, while some cities with a cold market in the first half of the year may usher in a significant increase in heat. In general, the gap between the market transaction volume in the second half of the year and that of last year will gradually decrease, but the property market in hot cities and regions may still come out of a new peak. The expected stability of house prices and land prices will be further strengthened, but the differentiation between quantity and price among cities will continue.
Wang Ruochen, a researcher at E-House Real Estate Research Institute, believes that with the epidemic under control since the second quarter and normalization of real estate activities, sales and new construction in the second half of the year will return to the operating track before the epidemic. Seeking state, reflecting the characteristics of "stable". (Sino-Singapore Jingwei APP)
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