[NHK] That was a secret decision. "Aegis Asshore" is expected to cost about 450 billion yen to build. "Open 24 hours a day, 365 days a year in Japan...

Aegis Asshore Deployment Stopped Why is it confidential? June 25, 11:46

It was a secret decision.
"Aegis Asshore" is expected to cost about 450 billion yen to build. It is a "land shield" that "touches the whole of Japan 24 hours a day, 365 days a year without interruption". However, the government effectively withdrew the deployment. Missile defense policies have had to undergo major changes.
Why did the plan suddenly stop? We explored the background and future of ballistic missile defense.
(Politics Department reporter Kiyoyama Inada, Kiyoshi Chiki)

Top secret decision and repulsion

June 15th, 5:30 pm.
Defense Minister Kono suddenly announced that he would stop the deployment plan for the new interceptor missile system "Aegis Asshore".

Just before that, Kono himself explained to the governors of both Yamaguchi and Akita prefectures by telephone, but other than that, only Prime Minister Abe and Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga explained the announcement of the planned suspension in advance. It was.

Kono urged the clerks to "don't tell anything until you tell the annoying locals."
He said, "If the governors of both prefectures, which were the candidate sites, leaked in advance, they would not
be able to get any cooperation from the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces in the future ." Confidentiality was thoroughly maintained.

The Ministry of Defense executive, who is the liaison with the U.S. side, says, "I've been asked one after another by the United States what's going on, but I only have what the minister told me. It wasn't done."
Even the window of the Japan-US alliance was set to suspend the plan without prior notice.

The ruling party is no different.
It was announced on the day of the announcement to the secretary general of the second floor of the Liberal Democratic Party and the representative of the Komeito Party, Yamaguchi. It was after Kono announced that the plan had been suspended, the Yamaguchi and Akita elected party leaders, who had been coordinating with the Ministry of Defense, were contacted.

The second floor, at a later party's meeting, expressed discomfort, saying, "While the party and the government should have been working together on important issues of national defense so far, the one-sided announcement is irrelevant." It was

Even the voices from the government leaked, saying, "I'm worried about the division of people and ministers who had not been notified in advance." "Kanno will be replaced by the next cabinet remodeling, so I am patient". ..

Kono admires, "Until now, various information was leaked, but I could not identify where it was leaked. By not explaining anything until I explained it to the governor, I prevented information leakage." On the other hand, he was forced to apologize to party leaders from the second floor.

"Isn't it the first time Kono-kun came to bow his head? I should have done so," said
one LDP veteran.

The reason for withdrawal

This time the decision was made that "Nemashiri" was almost never done. The trigger for the suspension was a "promise" with the candidate site.

Yamaguchi Prefecture, which was the candidate site, was concerned about the fall of a propulsion assisting device called a "booster" that was cut off when the interceptor missile was launched. Since August 2018, the Ministry of Defense has repeatedly explained to Yamaguchi Prefecture that it will surely make it fall into the training field, and has promised to take necessary measures.

The "booster" of the intercepting missile is a part that vertically propels the intercepting missile "SM3 block 2A" operated by "Aegis Ashore" immediately after launch.

The missile is a three-stage structure with a total length of about 6.7m.
Of these, the first stage that is fired and then cut off is about 170 cm long and 53 cm in diameter, about the size of a human adult. It weighs over 200 kg.

The measures the Ministry of Defense was "taking" to safely drop it are as follows.

First, the drop position is calculated in advance based on three conditions: 1. missile speed and flight direction, 2. wind direction and wind speed in the sky, and 3. "booster" attitude at the time of drop.

Then, the direction of the nozzle that ejects the combustion gas is changed in software so that the booster can be dropped to the calculated drop position, and the flight path of the missile is controlled.

"Inspiration not in design"

However, the former officers of the JMSDF, who were involved in the operation of the Aegis warship and actually in the interception experiment, point out that it was unrealistic.

"Interceptor missiles are aimed at hitting enemy missiles, and it is essential to be "farther, faster, and more accurately." If a missile is launched from North Korea, it will take about 8 minutes to reach Japan. It's a time game. If you shoot early, you can make a second counterattack, but if you calculate the fall of the booster and fire it, you will lose time.''

"The missile boosters and rocket motors are tied together like a band, and you just explode the explosives and remove them. There is no idea of controlling the fall by design, and in situations where you launch missiles, The first thing is to hit a ballistic missile.''

"Not worth the investment"

In the case of "Mutsumi Exercise Area" in Yamaguchi Prefecture, the distance to the sea is about 10km, and there is also a residential area in between.

In order to ensure the understanding of the residents, the Ministry of Defense has been coordinating with the US side in parallel with the explanation to the locals in order to realize a safe fall by modifying the software.

However, as a result of more elaborate simulations based on the complex topography of the driving range, the question was born, "Isn't it 100% that I can't say I can fall into the driving range?"

Accelerating discussions so that Japanese and US officials can dispel doubts.

"Why not downsize the first-stage booster and drop it faster?"

Simulations were repeated, but it was found that if the first stage was made smaller, the second stage had to be made larger, and the missile diameter had to be increased.

In addition to the missiles, there is also the possibility that repairs will also require launchers.

In late May, the Ministry of Defense decided that the missile itself had to be refurbished at virtually the same level as creating a new one in order to keep the "promise" of falling safely.

"SM3 Block 2A" developed jointly by the US and Japan. Already spent 12 years and over 200 billion yen. It will take a comparable amount of time for the repair, and Japan will bear almost the same amount of burden, and the capacity of the missile itself will not improve.

Kono, who received the report on June 3, told Abe the following day on the 4th.
"Sorry, Prime Minister. This refurbishment is not worth the 200 billion yen investment in 10 years. We have to stop the process."

Kono again met with Abe on the 12th, and said that the deployment plan had to be cancelled, and after obtaining consent, he announced the suspension of the plan on the 15th.

The deployment of "Aegis Ashore", which was decided to be introduced three years ago, following the launch of ballistic missiles by North Korea, was forced to virtually withdraw a blank sheet immediately after the sudden change.

On the 19th, Governor Muraoka of Yamaguchi Prefecture, who received Kono's apology, criticized the poor prospects.

"It's a very important issue that directly affects the lives of the people in the surrounding area. I wanted him to scrutinize it carefully from the beginning, and to answer it.

Japan’s missile defense system

The Ministry of Defense has said that "Aegis Ashore" will be a pillar of Japan's missile defense system to protect Japan "24 hours a day, 365 days a year, without interruption."

What will happen to Japan's missile defense system if this disappears?

First, in the current system, with the Aegis warship and the warning and control radar deployed on the ground, etc., the ballistic missile launched is detected, and at the stage of flying in outer space, with the interception missile ``SM3'' of the Aegis warship. I'm going to shoot it down.

Furthermore, if the ballistic missile cannot be shot down at this stage, and if a ballistic missile rushes into the atmosphere and heads for urban areas such as Japan, the ground-based interceptor missile "PAC3" will be shot down. ..

The actual situation of "Aegis"

The "Aegis System" is a Greek myth that derives its name from the "Aegis Shield" that Zeus gave to his daughter Athena to dispel all the disasters.

It consists of a radar that performs detection and tracking of ballistic missiles, and a device that controls the launch of intercepting missiles, and responds to attacks.

When dealing with ballistic missiles, the system onboard the escort vessel focuses on the electromagnetic waves of the radar in a narrow range to make it powerful and keeps on catching missiles flying from far away.

Although the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces have not disclosed the details, the Defense White Paper shows a protection system for ballistic missiles by Aegis ships, one conventional type and one new type with a wider range of protection So, we can handle it continuously.

A former officer of the JMSDF said, ``I can't say in detail, but if it supports ballistic missiles, depending on the conditions, it is possible to follow an object that is more than a basketball flying at a speed that exceeds the speed of sound, depending on the conditions. You can track as much as a ball.” Since most of the ship's power is diverted, it consumes the power of 20,000 ordinary households.”

The number of Aegis ships will change from the current seven to eight next spring. However, demand for Aegis ships in the southwestern waters amid the situation where Chinese aircraft carriers pass between the main island of Okinawa and Miyakojima, and submarines presumed to belong to China are sailing without floating just outside the territorial waters. Is also rising.

"Aegis Asshore," which was named "Ashore (land)", was designed to relocate the function of the Aegis warship to reduce the burden of ballistic missile alerts and to keep it functioning at all times. ..

Order dispute over huge project

The "Aegis System" is expensive. US Lockheed Martin and Raytheon have been fiercely contesting orders.

JMSDF destroyers and early Aegis ships in the United States are equipped with the "Aegis System" based on the radar "SPY-1" of Lockheed Martin.

In 2013, the US Navy signed a radar installation contract with Raytheon, Inc. for the SPY-6. It will be installed on the next Aegis ship and aircraft carrier.

For the deployment of "Aegis Asshore" in Japan, Lockheed Martin Corp. "LMSSR" (later acquired the model from the US military and changed the name to "SPY-7"), Raytheon Corp. It was marketing a system based on "6".

Raytheon Corp. has adopted the SPY-6, which has already been adopted by the U.S. Navy and has started mass production. The ability to detect was sold.

On the other hand, Lockheed Martin's "LMSSR" (SPY-7) uses the same radar system installed in Alaska and Hawaii by the Missile Defense Bureau, one of the US Department of Defense internal stations. Also, in Canada and Spain, it announced that the project is progressing on the assumption of hiring.

The Ministry of Defense finally decided to adopt the "LMSSR" (SPY-7) because of its excellent basic performance, logistical support, and cost.

"Thunk cost" that cannot be recovered

It was said that the deployment would cost more than 250 billion yen for two series of systems, and about 200 billion yen for maintenance and operation costs over the next 30 years. The entire project was expected to be about 450 billion yen, but it was also pointed out that it could expand further.

The Ministry of Defense has already signed a purchase contract of 180 billion yen with the US side, including two "weapon systems" that perform launch control based on detection and tracking, and "SPY-7" costs. We have paid about 20 billion yen.

Kono said, "Thunk costs that can not be recovered (= costs that do not come back) are not cheap, and I feel the responsibility seriously."

The Ministry of Defense will negotiate with the US side about whether it can reduce the contracted payment. If the contract cannot be canceled, we are considering diversion, including mounting the "SPY-7" on a destroyer or deploying it on the ground.

Revision of security strategy

The Abe administration has virtually withdrawn the deployment of "Aegis Asshore," which was a new pillar of ballistic missile defense.

How are you trying to find an "alternative pillar"?

“What should be done to strengthen deterrence and coping power? We will thoroughly discuss the state of the security strategy this summer at the National Security Council, firmly set a new direction, and promptly implement it. I want to move to

Three days after the announcement of the suspension of the deployment plan. Abe came up with the idea of revising Japan's security strategy itself, including ballistic missile defense.

In NSC = National Security Council, on which was intensively discussed the prospect of the end of September, the foreign and defense of basic policy revision and the "National Security Strategy", the guideline of Defense, "Defense Program The policy is to proceed with the review of the “General Rules”.

"For the time being, we will do it with the Aegis warship and the ground-based interceptor missile PAC3. We have no choice but to have the Maritime Self-Defense Force do our best."
Kono responds mainly to the Aegis warship until the new policy and the system based on it are fixed I'm thinking

There are plans to increase the number of Aegis ships from eight, but it is expected to be built for five years. The introduction of "Aegis Ashore" was partly decided due to the shortage of personnel of the Maritime Self-Defense Force, and the Ministry of Defense/SDF has a strong view that "the increase of Aegis ships will not be a drastic solution."

"Enemy base attack ability" that resurfaced

Against this backdrop, Abe said at a press conference as follows.
"The Liberal Democratic Party's proposal has been made based on the idea that it is okay to stay in the discussions so far while the other party's capabilities are increasing. We must accept such a thing." The

government has denied. He pointed out that there is an opinion within the LDP that he should possess "base attack capability", and he said he would discuss it.

Three years ago, the Liberal Democratic Party summarized one recommendation for strengthening ballistic missile defense, saying that the threat of North Korea has entered a new stage. Among these, they are demanding that they consider strengthening the conventional missile defense capabilities of Aegis ships, etc., as well as possessing "enemy base counterattack capability."

In order to further improve deterrence while maintaining the policy of dealing with "comprehensive power" based on the Japan-US alliance, the ability to attack enemy bases using cruise missiles etc. Should be considered in order to deal with this."

On top of that, although the impact power currently depends on the United States, while ballistic missile technology is rapidly developing, a new constraint between Japan and the US Should find a suitable role.

However, the government has so far said that "the ability to attack enemy bases" is "included in the scope of the self-defense right stipulated in the Constitution and can be possessed", while "it is not possessed as equipment and there is no plan to possess it". I explained. I mean, you can have it, but you don't have such equipment.

The basis for "having but not having"

About 60 years ago, in February 1956, the basis of the government's thinking was the reply of Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama. (Substituted by the Secretary General of the Agency for Defense Agency)

"If an improper infringement is committed against our country and an attack using a guided bomb etc. is made against our land as a means of the infringement, we should sit down and wait for self-destruction I think it's hard to think of what the purpose of the Constitution is as it is.''

``In such cases, take the necessary minimum necessary measures to prevent such attacks, for example, as long as it is recognized that there is no other means to defend against attacks by guided ammunition etc. I think that hitting such bases is legally included in the scope of self-defense, and it is possible."

"In the normal case, that is, despite other defense measures, In anticipation that hitting a base in the area would only be a defensive convenience, he said that it would not be within the scope of self-defense to easily attack that base in such a case. "Although I

made a recommendation, it is not in the opinion that it should be held within the LDP.
In addition, there are strong opinions within the Komeito Party, such as "it is not allowed to use force in other countries" and "it is not necessary to be able to defend with Aegis ships".

Also, within the ruling party, it was pointed out that it is abrupt to discuss the possession of attacking power, and instead of attacking the base itself, we will consider ways to improve cyber and electromagnetic wave capabilities and prevent firing. Some say it should.

Consistency with the government's answer so far and the correspondence between the LDP and the Komeito parties are likely to be the focus.

Furthermore, from the opposition, "the enemy base attack is a preemptive attack, the possession of offensive weapons exceeds the minimum range for self-defense, and it completely overruns the constitution," the possession is the constitution. There are also voices saying that it is against.

"Shields" and "pears"...

The plan to build a land-based "shield" called "Aegis Ashore" has been virtually withdrawn, and the operation of a sea "shield" called an Aegis ship is tightening. There are not many other options, such as the new shield, which has a much narrower range that can be covered, and the expensive interceptor system "THAAD" is purchased from the US side.

The interception missile "SM3 Block 2A" that was supposed to be used in "Aegis Ashore" is planned to be deployed to Aegis ships in the future, but it is said to be several billion yen per shot, "A lot of ballistic missiles are attacked If you try to be prepared, you have no financial resources."

On the other hand, if you try to reach for the "spear" of "enemy base attack capability," it will be a major shift in security policy, and it will be difficult to gain public understanding.

In the first place, North Korea is said to possess hundreds of missiles that can reach the whole of Japan.
It is difficult to protect Japan simply by hitting the base while repeatedly launching from the mobile launch pad, which is difficult to supplement with reconnaissance satellites.

From the de facto withdrawal of "Aegis Ashore" deployment, the government is going beyond the ballistic missile defense to a review of its security strategy. Can we fulfill our national responsibility while gaining the understanding of the people?

Japan's security policy has reached a major crossroads.
(Honorific title omitted)

Kiyoshi Inada, Reporter of the Ministry of Political Affairs,
joined the company in 2004. Interviewed with the ruling and opposition parties and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and capped the Ministry of Defense. We also interviewed US military "Aegis Ashore" in Hawaii.

Political Department reporter
Satoshi Yamamasu
Joined the company in 2009. After going through the Aomori Bureau, entered the political department. After working for the Ministry of Education and the opposition, he was in charge of the Ministry of Defense. My hobby is swimming.

Journalist of the Ministry of Political Science
Sohiki Soyo Joined the company in
2011. After going through Otsu and Chiba stations, entered the political department. After the prime minister's turn, Minister of Defense Kono's turn.

Aegis Asshore Deployment Stopped Why is it confidential?