Lebanon on the verge of collapse?

Audio 02:43

By: Bruno Daroux Follow

This week, Le Monde in question is interested in the worsening of the political and economic crisis in Lebanon. How to explain such a deterioration and especially the difficulty in finding solutions to end the crisis?

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The rebound in the Lebanese crisis can be explained by the effects of confinement, which accentuated the deterioration of the economic and social situation of a country which was already on the verge of bankruptcy.

Situation which had led to the big demonstrations of last autumn, when tens of thousands of Lebanese took to the streets to denounce, not only the carelessness of leaders unable to solve the financial and economic crisis of Lebanon, but also a system political breathless, eaten away by corruption and a game of balance become ineffective between the different faiths of the country, Shia Muslims, Sunni Muslims and Christians.

Begun last October, what protesters call the “thawra” - the revolution - led to the departure of Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri in late December and the arrival in business of a more neutral, more technical personality, Hassan Diab. The latter is committed to implementing the economic, social and political reforms that Lebanon badly needs.

But here it is: six months after his appointment, the reforms are slow, and the demonstrations resumed as soon as the confinement ended. In his defense, Hassan Diab explains that he has trouble implementing his reforms, for lack of sufficient and sincere support from all political parties. And in fact, we feel that partisan calculations are taking over, and with them the sectarian antagonisms that led Lebanon to the civil war between 1975 and 1990.

To put it simply, we can say that the supporters of Saad Hariri, the Sunni clan for going fast, believe that they were a bit of a turkey farce last fall. And that Hassan Diab, who calls himself apolitical, is in fact a straw man who works for the Shiite and Christian clans. In fact, it is true that Mr. Diab is supported by two Shiite parties: the very powerful Hezbollah and the Amal party, and by the Christian right from which the Lebanese President Michel Aoun came.

And the political atmosphere becomes deleterious. Mutual reproaches are increasing among supporters of Hassan Diab. They accuse the Hariri family of doing everything to sabotage the ongoing reforms.

For their part, the pro-Hariri believe that Hezbollah is taking advantage of the current crisis to increase its grip on the country and replace it under the influence of the Syrian regime.

And during this time, the social crisis becomes explosive with a poverty rate which now concerns one Lebanese in two, the Lebanese pound which collapses, and the public debt which reaches 170% of the GDP.

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• Lebanon

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