On its knees after nine years of war, weakened by the financial crisis that is hitting neighboring Lebanon and weakened by the health crisis linked to the coronavirus pandemic, the Syrian economy is on the verge of collapse.

The value of the Syrian pound has been in free fall for several months and is currently recording its worst stall since the start of the war in 2011. Last week, the dollar, capital for the economy and imports, briefly crossed the threshold of 3,000 Syrian pounds, more than four times the official rate, set in March by the Central Bank, at 700 pounds for a greenback.

Before the war, which devastated the country's infrastructure and industries and ruined the tourism sector, a major supplier of foreign currency, a dollar was worth between 47 and 48 Syrian pounds at the official rate.

Sign of the gravity of the situation, the "government of salvation", civil branch of the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Cham, which dominates the region of Idleb, the last great rebel stronghold, has started to replace the Syrian pound with Turkish currency in current transactions. And this, "in order to protect the province of Idleb from economic collapse," a local official told AFP on Monday June 15.

"Poverty will no doubt increase further"

The sharp depreciation of the national currency has caused market prices, including basic necessities, to soar, further deteriorating the living conditions of Syrians already hard hit by the conflict. According to the World Food Program (WFP), food prices have risen 133% since May 2019, in a country where 9.3 million people are food insecure.

"The economic crisis, combined with the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, which has paralyzed the planet, will have a lasting impact on the living conditions of Syrians," said Jihad Yasigi, editor-in-chief of “The Syria Report” at France 24.

He added: "The fact that there are not many dollars left in the country, that Lebanon, which was a major provider of green bills, is itself in crisis, and that money transfers from Syrians living abroad towards their families have declined, having themselves been affected by the coronavirus crisis in their host country, will worsen the situation and poverty will undoubtedly further increase. "

For his part, while denouncing “a great international speculation targeting the Syrian pound”, the former Syrian deputy Georges Jabbour explains to France 24 that the regional context influences the stability of the national currency. "Economic affairs are linked to political affairs," he said. When there are upheavals in Lebanon or Iraq, when Israel plans to annex part of the West Bank with the consent of the Americans, this has economic and financial consequences in Syria ”.

The Caesar law  , the coup de grace for the Syrian economy?

Already subject to international sanctions, the regime of President Bashar al-Assad could indeed see the crisis rapidly worsen, while the American law "Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act", or "Caesar law", named after the pseudonym of the The whistleblower, who in 2014 revealed photographs of bodies tortured and tortured in regime prisons between 2011 and 2013, is due to take effect on June 17.

The text, promulgated in December by President Donald Trump, provides for a freeze on all reconstruction aid for the Syrian authorities as well as sanctions against the regime or companies collaborating with it, as long as the perpetrators of atrocities have not been brought to justice.

"The Caesar law is already starting to have an impact. Foreign companies (including Russian) prefer not to take risks," Zaki Mehchy, a consultant at the British think tank Chatham House, told AFP recently.

The American measure, which will make foreign investment even more difficult, is described by Damascus as “economic terrorism” and accused of being responsible for the current situation. Last week, dozens of people demonstrated in the capital to denounce the sanctions and reaffirm their support for President Assad.

Syrian Minister of Economy and Trade Mohammad Samer al-Khalil, quoted by Al-Watan, a newspaper close to the regime, believes that this law aims to "prolong the war against Syria, hamper any attempt to revive the economy or reconstruction". But also "cut the strategic alliance" between Damascus and its Iranian and Russian allies and economic partners.

The fact remains that the deterioration of the economic situation weakens the power of Bashar al-Assad, who has witnessed the resumption of some demonstrations in sectors yet controlled by Damascus. Last week, several protests took place in Soueida, a city in southern Syria, during which dozens of people protested the high cost of living, before chanting anti-regime slogans.

And it is not certain that the anger will subside despite the dismissal of Prime Minister Imad Khamis on June 11, and whose government had adopted a package of unpopular measures like new cuts in gasoline subsidies and a monthly ceiling for purchases of certain basic products, including rice and sugar, at subsidized prices.

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