China-Singapore Jingwei client, June 16 (Xue Yufei) "Housing demand has been further released, the real estate market in 70 large and medium-sized cities is generally stable, and prices have risen slightly." Kong Peng, chief statistician of the City Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted this year 5 Changes in sales prices of commodity housing in the month.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 15th, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the sales price of new homes in the first, second and third tier cities has slightly increased from the previous month, and the second-hand residential housing has increased the same as last month or slightly expanded. Among them, first-tier cities led the way, with second-hand housing sales prices in Beijing and Shenzhen increasing by 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, ranking first and second in 70 cities.
In the first five months of this year, although the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing nationwide fell by more than 10% year-on-year, the decline has narrowed from January to April. In terms of months, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing nationwide in May both increased for the first time since the epidemic. Industry insiders said that as the impact of the epidemic on economic activity gradually diminished, the real estate market began to recover fully.
The number of cities with rising house prices has risen continuously for 4 months
The 10 cities with the largest month-on-month increase in sales prices of newly built commercial housing. Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in May, among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities where the sales prices of newly built commercial housing rose 57% and the number of cities where the prices of second-hand housing rose sequentially were 41.
Carding found that this is the fourth consecutive month of rebound in the number of cities where the sales prices of new and second-hand housing have increased. From February to May this year, the number of cities with new house price increases was 21, 38, 50, and 57 respectively, and second-hand houses were 14, 32, 37, and 41, respectively.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, said that the number of cities with new home prices rose 57%, which is the same as the highest point in the third quarter of 2019; the number of cities with second-hand housing sales prices increased month-on-month, the highest since September 2019 point.
"Simple calculations indicate that prices in 70% of cities have risen, which is the highest point in the last 7 months, which is the same as in December 2019. Although this data is lower than the third quarter of 2019, the upward trend continues It has already appeared." Zhang Dawei told the Sino-Singapore Jingwei client that data from May showed that the national market is continuing to recover and has basically returned to the level before the epidemic, and the market as a whole has come out of a downturn.
Yan Yuejin, Director of Research at the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, believes that real estate transactions in May have exceeded expectations, especially in some large cities. In addition, the control of pre-sale permits for new homes has been significantly relaxed in various regions, and the increase in high-end projects has also affected the price increase.
First-tier cities' price increases lead Beijing over Shenzhen
In May 2020, the sales price index of second-hand houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities. Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
In terms of city types, Kong Peng said that the sales prices of newly built commercial housing in all tier cities have slightly increased month-on-month, and that of second-hand housing has increased the same as last month or slightly expanded. According to preliminary estimates, the sales prices of new homes in 4 first-tier cities, 31 second-tier cities, and 35 third-tier cities respectively increased by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.7% month-on-month, and second-hand residential sales prices increased by 1.1%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively.
Yan Yuejin pointed out that the biggest highlight of the property market in May was in the first-tier cities, where the increase was the largest. The recent market transactions in first-tier cities are generally good, especially in the case of luxury housing projects, which will drive up housing prices in such cities.
The price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities rose by 1.1% month-on-month, Yan Yuejin said that this is the first time that the price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities has risen by more than 1% since April 2017. "In general, we will consider the increase of more than 1% to be overheated. Therefore, the price of second-hand houses in first-tier cities should be controlled in the future, especially in school districts. It should also be noted that rising house prices in first-tier cities are likely to cause expected changes, which will affect house prices in other cities."
Among the four first-tier cities, Beijing and Shenzhen saw significant increases, reaching 1.8% and 1.6% respectively, ranking first and second in 70 cities. The Central Plains Real Estate Research Center said that the actual transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing reached 21,000 units in May, mainly due to the rapid release of the backlog of demand during the epidemic and the blowout of housing transactions in the Xicheng District school district, which made the price of second-hand houses rise significantly.
Due to the adjustment of second-hand housing taxes and fees last year, coupled with many other favorable factors, Shenzhen's real estate market continues to be hot. In terms of second-hand housing, since September 2019, Shenzhen's second-hand housing sales prices have risen 5th, 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, 3rd, 1st, 2nd and 2nd respectively in 70 cities.
Yan Yuejin said that Beijing's second-hand housing prices have risen more than Shenzhen's, and there is a certain chance. The sudden adjustment of the housing policy of the Beijing School District led to a large increase in transaction volume in May and an increase in the growth rate. The Shenzhen market continued to be hot and received some supervision in May, so the growth rate was slightly adjusted back, which made Beijing's increase greater than that of Shenzhen. .
Yan Yuejin predicts that under the current circumstances, the regulatory policies may not be tightened quickly, and the markets in Beijing and Shenzhen will continue to maintain a certain degree of heat. Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center also said that by June, the popularity of the second-hand housing market in Beijing will be weakened, but prices will continue to rise.
The decline in the area of commercial housing sales narrowed and rebounded in May
Source: National Bureau of Statistics website
On the 15th, the National Bureau of Statistics also announced the national investment and sales of real estate development from January to May this year.
Data show that from January to May, the sales area of commercial housing nationwide was about 487 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12.3%, and the decrease was 7.0 percentage points narrower than that from January to April. Sales of commercial housing were about 4.63 trillion yuan, down 10.6%, a decrease of 8.0 percentage points from January to April. Yan Yuejin believes that although the sales area of commercial housing still shows a negative growth trend, the decline has narrowed rapidly, indicating that the trading situation in May is better.
Looking at the May data alone, the sales area of commercial housing in the country was about 147 million square meters, which was an increase of 9.66% compared with 134 million square meters in May 2019. The sales of commercial housing in the country were about 1.44 trillion yuan, compared with 5 in 2019. The 1.26 trillion yuan in the month rose by 14.04%. From January to February, March and April of this year, the sales area and sales volume of commercial housing were lower than the same period last year.
"The transaction data in May showed a year-on-year increase. This is the first time since the outbreak, and the impact of the outbreak is passing quickly." Zhang Dawei said.
From the enterprise level, from January to May, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 47.52 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 8.1%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points from January to April; the land transaction price was 242.9 billion yuan, an increase of 7.1%. Speed increase by 0.2 percentage points.
58 President of the Anju Guest House Research Institute Branch Zhang Bo believes that housing companies are gathering land in first- and second-tier cities, and plots with high premium rates are also increasing. Some cities have relaxed their land policies, including payment and reserves, which has raised the willingness of housing companies to take land to a certain extent. At the same time, transactions in some urban markets have accelerated, and companies have been more active in the land market while quickly obtaining pre-sale funds.
In addition, in the first five months of this year, although data on real estate development investment and funds in place for real estate development companies nationwide continued to show negative growth, they all showed a decreasing trend.
Limited space for deregulation and control of the property market or high operation in June
Information Chart Sales Department Sand Table. Photo by Xue Yufei
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the prosperity index of real estate development in May was 99.35, an increase of 0.49 points from April. 58 Information on the behavior of home buyers in the same city and Anju also shows that the confidence index of home buyers in May was 107.2, an increase of 4.4% from the previous month; over 60% of home buyers believed that this year’s property market regulation policy will remain stable; 39.1% of home buyers believed that this year The number of transactions will increase year-on-year; 61.7% of home buyers believe that housing prices in first- and second-tier cities will be stable in the short term and will rise in the future.
Zhang Bo pointed out that under the general background of housing and housing speculation, the local governments will still maintain a cautious attitude towards relaxing the regulation of the property market, especially for demand-side policies, such as down payment ratio, purchase restrictions, loan restrictions, etc., and the room for loosening is very limited. . It is expected that property market transactions in hot cities and regions will continue to reach a new peak this year, but the price-price differentiation between cities will continue.
Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that the number of real estate market regulation policies issued in May has decreased significantly, only 35, compared with 238 in January-April. Zhang Dawei said that the property market in June will continue to run at a high level, and the annual market turnover is still expected to be close to the highest record in 2019.
Yan Yuejin said: "According to the sales amount and sales area announced by the National Bureau of Statistics, the average sales price of commercial housing in the country from January to May was 9,500 yuan per square meter, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. From the perspective of housing prices, it has actually gone out In the cold range, at least with the rebound in market transactions, there is little room for house prices to fall. This year's relatively strong demand for house purchases has made house prices easy to fall, but similar increases are relatively controllable, and the market does not have to worry about it." (Zhongjing Jingwei APP)
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