Detailed explanation: How much wind and rain will this year bring to my country's first typhoon "Parrot"?
Beijing News (Reporter Deng Qi) No. 2 Typhoon Parrot will land on the coast of Guangdong on June 14. As the first typhoon to land in my country this year, what are the characteristics of the "parrot"? What impact will it bring? On June 13, Zhang Ling, chief forecaster of the Typhoon and Marine Meteorological Forecast Center of China Meteorological Administration, made a detailed interpretation.
Reporter: At 14:00 on the 13th, the typhoon Parrot was about 470 kilometers southeast of Yangjiang City, Guangdong Province. What impact will it have and how long will it last? What aspects need special attention to prevent?
Zhang Ling: Affected by typhoon Parrot, from 13 to 14 days, strong winds of magnitude 6 to 7 will generally occur in the Bass Strait, the central and northern parts of the South China Sea, and coastal areas of Guangdong. Reach level 8-9. Strong winds of level 10 and gusts 11 to 12 will also appear in the waters and areas passing by the "Parrot" center.
From the night of the 13th to the night of the 15th, there will be heavy rains in southern Guangxi, southeastern Guangxi, and northeastern Hainan, and heavy rains in some areas, with a cumulative rainfall of 100-160 mm.
From the forecast point of view, due to the structural asymmetry of the typhoon "Parrot", it will bring heavy rainfall to the coastal area of western Guangdong located west of the typhoon center before landing. It is necessary to pay attention to the prevention of heavy rainfall and possible flash floods, landslides, The occurrence of secondary geological disasters such as debris flow. In addition, typhoons landing in western Guangdong often bring stormwater to the Pearl River Estuary, and corresponding preventive measures should be taken in a timely manner.
Reporter: What are the characteristics of typhoon Parrot? Is it a "good typhoon"?
Zhang Ling: "Parrot" has the following main characteristics: short life time, weak strength, and asymmetric structure.
The typhoon "Parrot" was officially numbered from June 12 to its landing, weakening, and dissipation. The entire process is expected to be only about 3 days, with a short life history. In terms of intensity, the intensity can reach tropical storm level to strong tropical storm level, which is relatively weak. The "Parrot" typhoon structure has obvious asymmetry, and the main deep convection area is not located near the center of the typhoon, but on the southwest side of the center. This is the main reason for its weak strength, and it also leads to the possibility of heavy precipitation. Mainly concentrated on the west side of the typhoon path.
In the past month, precipitation in southern Guangxi, southern Guangxi, and Hainan Island was significantly less, 30% to 70% less than the same period of the previous year; and there were longer periods of high temperature weather, and the average daily temperature in the past 20 days was higher than the same period in history 1-4℃; moderate to severe meteorological droughts have also appeared in the above areas. The rain brought by typhoon Parrot just covers the above areas, which is more beneficial to alleviate the high temperature and drought. However, it is necessary to prevent the occurrence of disasters such as floods in urban and rural areas, torrents, debris flows, and landslides that may be caused by heavy rainfall in parts of western Guangdong.
Reporter: As the first typhoon to land in China this year, is it earlier or later than normal? What are the characteristics of the typhoon that will affect our country this summer?
Zhang Ling: According to statistics, the average date of the first typhoon to land in China every year is June 29. If the "Parrot" landed on the 14th, it would be about half a month earlier than the average date.
It is predicted that the activities of typhoons are mainly related to ocean and atmospheric conditions. As far as the state of the ocean is concerned, a weak El Niño incident has occurred in the Middle East and Pacific since November 2019. According to statistics, the occurrence of the El Niño event is not conducive to the generation of typhoons in the Pacific Northwest. From the perspective of atmospheric conditions, in the low latitudes of the Western Pacific, convective activities are not prosperous, and the weak equatorial west wind brought by the monsoon is not conducive to typhoon generation.
Combining the two aspects, it is expected that the generation of typhoons in summer this year will be slightly less than that in the same period in previous years. It is estimated that there will be 10-11 typhoons in June-August. There are about 4-5 typhoons landing in my country, which is close to the historical level.