- In France, 13 people died from Covid-19 on Sunday. Although this figure is still too high, it is the lowest level reached since the start of the epidemic.
- If the epidemic is now under control in France, it could start again. Indicators are there to identify this restart.
- For Karine Lacombe, head of the infectious diseases department at the Saint-Antoine hospital in Paris, "we can say that the epidemic is over", but could start again.
In France, the epidemic continues to slow down. Covid-19 killed 13 people in hospital in France on Sunday, the lowest number since March 18. While this rate has only been decreasing for a few weeks, should we see hope, a way out of the crisis? 20 Minutes takes stock with Karine Lacombe, head of the infectious diseases department at the Saint-Antoine hospital in Paris and Michèle Legeas, teacher at the EHESP, specialist in the analysis and management of situations with health risks.
Is the drop in mortality figures good news in the fight against Covid-19? How should it be interpreted?
The mortality rate confirms its permanent decline in France. A trend that accompanies the decline in the number of cases in the country. "As there are far fewer new cases, there are fewer deaths, with better care for sick people," says Michèle Legeas.
The total number of deaths amounted to 29,155 in France at the time this article was published, with 1,053 patients hospitalized in intensive care. A number in constant decline since early April when the peak of intensive care patients had been reached with more than 7,000 people in serious condition.
"There are no longer any deaths from acutely infected people," adds Karine Lacombe. "The deaths that persist are people infected long ago and who did not come out of intensive care but also people in palliative care, often elderly, and whose situation has deteriorated," she explains.
Does this mean that the epidemic is over?
"I think we are out of the crisis, we can say that the epidemic is over," confirms Karine Lacombe. "But the virus, like all viruses, can circulate at low noise, it can disappear for a time, reappear: we are very vigilant about its resurgence in the fall, like other respiratory viruses. No way to do as in New Zealand, where social distancing is no longer recommended by the authorities: since Monday, the country has no longer any case of coronavirus on its territory.
In France, we are not there yet: "The situation has improved and continues to improve (but) it is too early to in any way relax our vigilance", judged this Monday the Minister of Health Olivier Véran this Monday. "Let's not go too fast, we managed to win a battle by everyone's effort, a battle that it was very difficult to win, we have not yet won the war," said the minister. "It is not over, we are not safe from recreating situations in which the epidemic can start again", abounds Michèle Legeas. “What we can hope for is to take appropriate measures in time. We will live in fear of a possible restart of the disease for a certain time, ”she said.
Should we worry about the multiplication of small clusters?
The National Health Agency counted 150, in a report published on June 4, according to Franceinfo. "It would be dramatic if we didn't have one!" That means that detection works well, ”reassures Karine Lacombe, citing the diagnostic and follow-up pathway for patients set up to break the chains of contamination (tests, contact case searches, quarantine, etc.).
What should you watch for to see the second wave coming, if it takes place?
“It is not mortality that must be monitored, but the number of new positive cases diagnosed using PCR tests. Then, it is also necessary to be attentive to the number of people who consults with the emergencies for suspicion Covid, and finally the number of entries in resuscitation ”, points out Karine Lacombe. These indicators, currently at their lowest in France, work like dominoes: in the case of a second wave, there will first be an increase in cases, which will increase hospitalizations, then the number of serious cases in intensive care and finally , the number of deaths. "Below a certain number of new cases per day, there is a circulation of the virus but no epidemic outbreak," confirms Michèle Legeas.
Another asset to see any comeback of the epidemic: the Sentinelles network, created in 1984 to monitor influenza-like symptoms in France. "In the event of recovery, it will first be done in people who are not very sick via an increase in influenza-like syndromes," says Karine Lacombe. “It is an indicator that can move very early in the epidemic. "
See you in the fall.
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