It is time to anticipate to "avoid a new generalized confinement". The scientific council responsible for guiding the authorities in the management of the Covid-19 crisis recommends preparing for "four probable scenarios" for the coming months, ranging from a "controlled epidemic" to "critical degradation " Subtitled "anticipate to better protect", this new opinion posted online on Thursday aims to "prepare the various structures of the State to face a possible resumption of the epidemic whatever its form".
The challenge of controlling the epidemic
The first scenario, "the most favorable", is that of an "epidemic under control" with only a few "localized outbreaks that can be controlled". The others envisage "critical clusters letting fear of a loss of control of the chains and contamination" and "a gradual and low-noise resumption of the epidemic, more difficult to identify". The last would be that of a “critical degradation of indicators” for monitoring the epidemic, reflecting “a loss of control” of the latter.
The scientific council, chaired by immunology specialist Jean-François Delfraissy, "stresses the need to prepare" "appropriate measures" for each of these scenarios. These must be "developed now" in order to "activate them as quickly as possible" "when necessary", insists the notice.
Also, the scientific council proposes to prepare them "with the actors in particular territorial", within the framework of a "plan of prevention and close protection" aiming "to increase the effectiveness of the measures taken while limiting the social impact and economic of the epidemic ”. Such a plan should include "strengthening barrier and distancing measures", such as "wearing a mandatory mask in all confined spaces".
Test, trace, isolate
The scientific council also suggests "the reinforced implementation of the test, trace, isolate strategy, a protection plan for nursing homes, reinforced protection by voluntary confinement of the most vulnerable people because of their age or their state of health, a plan intended for the most precarious people as well as a set of measures to be implemented in the metropolises, which are particularly exposed, in particular in Ile-de-France ”.
In an interview with the Parisian , Professor Jean-François Delfraissy especially estimated that "whatever happens, we will not be able to redo a generalized confinement in France". "The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price to pay is too heavy," he explained. "The population would surely not accept it, the economic consequences would be major and, even from a health point of view, this is not desirable". The executive is notified.
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