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Round 2 and without significant changes in the Spanish shield against the new Wuhan coronavirus. If three weeks ago, the first wave of the ENE-Covid-19 echoed 5%, this time it only rises to 5.2%.

It seems that we are far from obtaining herd immunity, only possible with at least 60% of the immunized population. But, now, in this case, the situation that was analyzed was in a context with measures that relief that all the communities already enjoyed. The increase is less than 100,000 people. Thus, the total barely reaches 2.5 million Spaniards. As the director of the National Center for Epidemiology, Marina Pollán , explains , "the increase is not significant and was within expectations."

One of the advantages of this work, as Pollán points out, "is that with the laboratory data we will be able to determine the variability of the viral load over time ." This means that it will be possible to know how that immunity evolves, "since it is an investigation in which the test is repeated on the same people."

How many have tested positive for PCR?

Regarding diagnosis or COVID19 by PCR, eight out of ten participants have undergone PCR + more than 2 weeks ago and present IgG antibodies. In possible suspected cases, the prevalence increases with the number of symptoms and is particularly high in people who report anosmia (40%). Finally, 2.8% (in the previous round it was 2.5%) of the participants who did not report any symptoms presented IgG antibodies. This implies that around 33% of SARS-CoV-2 infections are asymptomatic. "The data from round 1 is repeated," insists Pollán.

By regions

Although the national prevalence stands at 5.2%, a marked geographic variability similar to that observed in round 1 is observed. In the provincial maps the central grouping of provinces with prevalences equal to or close to 10% in the environment of Madrid. In relation to participants in round 1, initially negative and who have seroconverted, the overall percentage is 0.8%, highlighting a percentage close to 2% in Ávila, Valladolid and Palencia, and 1.5% in Madrid, Soria and Gerona.

Here the mathematical calculation indicates the provinces where there is the highest prevalence. Again the ranking is starred by regions of the plateau, headed Soria, Segovia, Madrid, Guadalajara and Cuenca, and Albacete is added , all of them between 14 and 11%.

This difference between regions is even five times between the most affected and the least affected. For example, in Asturias, Ceuta, Murcia, Melilla, and the Canary Islands it was less than 2% , in round 1. Now, in the new one, with less than this percentage, only the first three remain , to which the Balearic Islands, the The rest has risen at least 0.5%.

On this occasion, 95% of those who did it the first time have returned to participate and some 5,847 participants have joined. All of them have had an antibody serology test. The director of the Carlos III Health Institute, Raquel Yotti, stressed "the high adherence to the study". In addition, he adds that "87% have donated a blood sample."

Regarding municipal size, data very similar to the first round has been observed in all cases, except for a slight increase in large cities (with more than 100,000 inhabitants), which have gone from a prevalence of 6.4% to 6, 8%.

One of the key data is the map of possible cases with Covid-19 symptoms in the last two weeks. This is practical to know the current transmission that the virus has, one of the parameters that Health insists on to observe the evolution of the epidemic.

This time, people with three or more symptoms or with sudden loss of smell show lower prevalences than those observed in the first round. Only the provinces of Santa Cruz de Tenerife, Granada, Madrid, Toledo and Las Palmas are around 1%. In the first wave, this percentage was above 3% in all the territories, including the insular ones, and reached over 7% in Palencia and Soria.

By age groups

In the child population, immunity rates remain almost the same as three weeks ago. In children under one year they have gone from 1% to 2.2%; from 1 to 4, from 2 to 2.2% and from 5 to 9 years, from 3% to 2.9%. To this, it must be added that according to the Spanish Association of Pediatrics (AEP) some 1,400 children have been diagnosed in Spain with Covid-19, of which slightly more than a quarter have required hospital admission, according to the expert pediatrician in Covid-19 and spokesperson for the AEP in the epidemic, Cristina Calvo.

Thus, the data from the sample collected in the first wave pointed to a prevalence of around 6% in those over 65 years of age . In the second wave, this population has acquired more immunity : those over 90, from 5.7 to 8%; between 85-89, from 5.9 to 6.4%; from 80 to 84, equal, 5.1%; between 75 to 79, from 5.9 to 6.4%; from 70-74, from 6.7 to 7.3% and from 69-65, from 6 to 6.6%. Although the stratification of the elderly by age has been looked at, they still do not take into account the factor of coexistence in a residence. However, Pollán estimates that "this increase is not significant."

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