From a "controlled epidemic" to a "critical deterioration", the scientific council responsible for guiding the authorities in the management of the coronavirus crisis recommends preparing for "four probable scenarios" for the coming months. The objective of this new opinion, put online Thursday and subtitled "anticipate to better protect" is "to prepare the various structures of the State to face a possible resumption of the epidemic whatever its form" .
"Localized" outbreaks or "loss of control" of the epidemic
The first scenario, "the most favorable", is that of an "epidemic under control" with only a few "localized outbreaks that can be controlled". Scenarios two and three respectively envisage "critical clusters raising fears of a loss of control of the chains and contamination" and "a gradual and low-noise resumption of the epidemic, more difficult to identify".
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The most serious of the scenarios, the last mentioned by the scientific council, would be that of a "loss of control" of the epidemic which would result in "critical degradation of the indicators" for monitoring the latter. This situation "would require difficult decisions, leading to a choice between a generalized national confinement, making it possible to minimize direct mortality, and other collective, economic and social objectives, then accompanied by significant direct mortality".
Develop measures now
The scientific council, chaired by immunology specialist Jean-François Delfraissy, "stresses the need to prepare" "appropriate measures" for each of these scenarios, to "avoid a new generalized confinement" like that experienced in the country March 17 to May 11. These measures must be "developed now" in order to "activate them as quickly as possible" "when necessary", insists the opinion.
Also, the scientific council proposes to prepare them "with the actors in particular territorial", within the framework of a "plan of prevention and close protection" aiming "to increase the effectiveness of the measures taken while limiting the social impact and of the epidemic. " Such a plan should include "strengthening barrier and distancing measures", such as "wearing a mandatory mask in all confined spaces".
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Among the measures proposed, the opinion also suggests: "the reinforced implementation of the 'test, trace, isolate' strategy, a protection plan for nursing homes, reinforced protection by voluntary confinement of the people most vulnerable because of their age or their state of health, a plan intended for the most precarious people as well as a set of measures to be implemented in the metropolises, which are particularly exposed, in particular in Île-de-France ".
"We will not be able to redo a general confinement in France"
In an interview with the Parisian, Professor Jean-François Delfraissy, President of the Scientific Council, estimated that "whatever happens, we cannot redo a generalized confinement in France". "The first time, it was essential, we had no choice, but the price to pay is too heavy," he added.
"The population would surely not accept it, the economic consequences would be major and, even from a health point of view, this is not desirable", he argued, recalling "that apart from Covid , there were all the other patients who had delays in diagnosis during this period. " "Once we have said that, what do we do if the situation gets worse? So we need a big prevention plan," he concluded.