According to Belkacem’s assertion of the “Beyond the News” program on 2/6/2020, the great defeats that Haftar suffered recently forced his international supporters to change their positions and return to a political solution in the hope of ending the haemorrhage of Haftar and his forces at the hands of government forces. Concord after the direct Turkish intervention.
Belkacem pointed out that the change in the balance of power on the ground in favor of the Al-Wefaq government greatly affected the position of Haftar's supporters, as the French position on substantial military support declined in favor of demanding a political solution, "in the hope that Paris could obtain gains that it failed to obtain through support Haftar militarily. "
Regarding the Russian position, Belkacem agreed with both the political analyst Asaad Al-Sharta and the international affairs expert Abdel Hamid Siyam that Russia had moved militarily towards Libya before Haftar lost all the oil and strategic military sites it controls in front of the Al-Wefaq government. According to Siyam, Russia does not want to be absolutely victorious in the war in Libya, and there is no one on the other side that is totally defeated.
Al-Sharta spoke of an Emirati role in pushing for a political settlement, but for a different purpose. As the UAE tries to catch its breath, give Haftar and his forces a chance to gain more time, and remedy the recent losses.
Siyam also spoke about a prominent American role to force the parties to the conflict to return to negotiation, and pointed out that the United States realized after the recent Russian move in Libya that Moscow was seeking to fill the void formed by the American absence, which is certainly not what Washington or even Western countries will allow.
Belkacem agreed with this view, stressing that Washington has played a major role in persuading or forcing the parties to the conflict to return to a peaceful solution and to think of a political solution to end the crisis.
As for why the Al-Wefaq government agreed to return to a political solution, Al-Shara affirmed that it was the countries that supported Haftar that imposed the return to this path, as it possesses greater international diplomatic power than that of the Al-Wefaq government or the countries that support it. "So she was forced to accept a return to the political track despite her military superiority on the battlefield," and stressed his refusal to accept "reconciliation" any political solution before Haftar retreated from some oil fields.
The expected scenario
In relation to the expected scenario, Belkacem suggested that there will be a political solution based, to a large extent, on the initiative launched by the Speaker of Parliament, Aqila Saleh, despite his reservations on some of its provisions.
Belkacem revealed pressure from a large country on Haftar to appoint a deputy, stressing that this is a matter of time, as Haftar has lost many of its international and domestic supporters, after the losses he suffered in recent months.
However, Al-Sharta ruled out the current efforts to achieve a political solution to the crisis in Libya, stressing the lack of seriousness of these efforts and initiatives, which he said lacked the mechanisms that convince the Libyans that Haftar will abide by the agreements he signs after he has broken all the agreements that he signed.
But Siyam stressed the UN’s conviction that it is impossible to find any military solution to the crisis in Libya, and that the solution must be political.