Libya: a reversal of the military situation at the heart of the civil war

Audio 02:31

Tripoli after bombing by Marshal Khalifa Haftar's forces on May 9, 2020. AFP / Mahmud Turkia

By: Bruno Daroux Follow

A look back at the still very unstable situation in Libya, a country torn apart by a devastating civil war between the GNA, the Government of National Union of President Fayez el-Sarraj, and the Libyan National Army (ANL) of Marshal Haftar. The latter has been trying to seize the city of Tripoli for 13 months. He had the advantage of arms until recently, but the tide has been turning against him for several weeks.

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How to explain this reversal of the military situation? Essentially by the shattering entry into the running since January of a new actor in this civil war exploited by certain foreign powers.

This actor is Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has decided to lend a helping hand to his Libyan counterpart Fayez el-Sarraj. This decisive aid has been dispatched to Tripoli since January. Aid both in military equipment - in drones in particular - and in men, pro-Ankara Syrian combatants.

And the GNA forces, hitherto on the defensive, and who had great difficulty in stopping the advance of Haftar's soldiers on Tripoli, are loosening the noose around the Libyan capital thanks to these Turkish reinforcements . They even took over strategic localities within a radius of 70 to 150 kilometers around Tripoli.

The ANL of the boiling marshal retreats, and with it the Russian mercenaries of the private paramilitary militia Wagner, sent by Moscow at the end of 2018 to support Haftar - although Russia has never officially recognized this aid. They packed up at full speed last weekend to protect the strategic cities of Jufra and Sirte, still in the hands of the ANL, before undoubtedly returning to Russia.

Can we therefore speak of a long-standing confrontation between Moscow and Ankara, which are also cooperating on the Syrian issue? Not really. We should rather speak of a dull competition where everyone pursues their own interests. Libyan oil and gas are indeed common objectives for the two countries.

Then everyone has their own goals: for the Russians, supporting Haftar is also fighting Islamist terrorism. It is also partly for this reason that Haftar is closely supported by certain European countries, including France.

For the Turks, in addition to access to hydrocarbons off the Libyan coast, as now allowed by an agreement signed with the government of Tripoli which was accompanied by the dispatch of the first reinforcements, the other objective is more geopolitical: Erdogan dream of restoring the influence of the Ottoman Empire in the Near East and the Eastern Mediterranean. Concern for greatness, desire also to harm the interests of Egypt - relations between the two countries are abysmal. And Cairo, like the United Arab Emirates, supports Haftar.

This is how Libya finds itself tossed about for the worse according to the divergent interests of these great powers.

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