INTERVIEW
After almost three months of health crisis in France, many questions remain about the coronavirus, which has caused the death of at least 28,215 people in mainland France and overseas. At the microphone of Europe 1, Dominique Costagliola, epidemiologist and director of research at Inserm reviewed the scientific advances against the Covid-19. Because since the beginning of the pandemic, the race for the vaccine is launched and many hope to find an effective one within the next few months.
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Will a vaccine be available soon?
On May 18, Moderna, a biotechnology company, published initial encouraging results from trials on a vaccine, raising hopes of the rapid spread of effective protection against the coronavirus. "This is what was expected," reacted to the microphone of Europe 1 Dominique Costagliola. "This is undoubtedly a premature announcement," said the epidemiologist and research director at Inserm.
"We know very well when we are looking for a vaccine that it is not because we are doing phase 1 trials that it will necessarily give rise to a vaccine at the end", she explains to the microphone of Europe 1 Dominique Costagliola takes the example of the AIDS virus, on which phase 1 trials were encouraging, but which ultimately did not give a vaccine. "In general, whatever the disease, between phase 1 trials and the discovery of a vaccine, there are a lot of hurdles to cross."
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Do we continue to benefit from the effects of confinement?
Yes, answers Dominique Costagliola. "We are starting to be at the moment when we will be able to observe what is related to post-confinement," she explains. If people get sick, it takes two to three weeks before they get to hospitals, says the epidemiologist. "So we're just starting to see the first effects of deconfinement, especially by looking at the consultation data from SOS doctors, general practitioners and in part from the emergency room."
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Does part of the population have natural immunity to the coronavirus?
While scientists suggest that some people have "cross immunity" to Covid-19 by having previously been infected with other coronaviruses, Dominique Costagliola is not convinced by this theory. "People rely on observations of contamination, like boats," she says. If we take the example of Charles-de-Gaulle, "we see that 60% of the population has been infected, while in a cruise ship in Yokohama, it was only 20%".
The epidemiologist warns against hasty conclusions: "I think that even if they are quasi-experiments, at the end, we take measures which make that we do not observe the natural evolution of the virus".
What are the places where the transmission of the virus is more important?
"The exponential growth of the epidemic is linked to events of super diffusion," recalls Dominique Costagliola. "We are in a situation where the probability of this type of event is extremely low, since we prohibit gatherings," reassures the research director at Inserm. "The only possible place that has resumed is public transport (...) but there are barrier and distancing measures which must limit the probability that elements of super diffusion occur and relaunch the epidemic".
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Asked about the non-reopening of outdoor spaces such as parks and gardens in the red zones, Dominique Costagliola said that she "does not understand the logic behind these measures". "As long as there is not too much population density, the risk is certainly no more dangerous than being on the street," she concludes.