In April, the national economic operation improved and the employment pressure in cities and towns nationwide was higher. The
  National Bureau of Statistics said that there is confidence to achieve economic recovery but there are still uncertainties.

  Beijing News (Reporter Pan Yichun) On May 15, the National Bureau of Statistics released the report card of the national economy in April, and several key indicators have improved. However, the National Bureau of Statistics pointed out that the current overseas epidemic situation is still spreading and the domestic economic recovery is still facing many challenges.

  Investment in three major industries picks up

  Last month, investment picked up noticeably. In the first 4 months, the investment in the primary industry fell by 5.4%, the investment in the secondary industry fell by 16%, and the investment in the tertiary industry fell by 7.8%, which were narrower than the first quarter by 8.4, 5.9, and 5.7 percentage points, respectively. At the same time, investment in infrastructure fell by 11.8% year-on-year, investment in manufacturing fell by 18.8%, and investment in real estate development fell by only 3.3%, which was 7.9, 6.4, and 4.4 percentage points less than in the first quarter.

  Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of New Times Securities, said that the decline in fixed asset investment narrowed in April, and the three major sub-items have improved, especially the monthly growth rate of real estate and infrastructure investment rose to 6.9% and 4.8% respectively, mainly due to the epidemic. After the improvement, the construction industry hastened to speed up, coupled with the extremely loose monetary policy and increased fiscal policy, the monthly growth rate of this investment returned to a relatively normal level.

  "Subsequently, as the completion of real estate is still a double-digit decline, under the pressure of housing delivery, the construction intensity of housing companies will increase, and the interest rate of housing loans will steadily decline under the superposition of monetary easing to stimulate demand for housing purchases. It is expected that the growth rate of real estate investment will continue to repair. Large-scale issuance, follow-up financial policy support, and new infrastructure construction have been greatly promoted. It is expected that the repair of infrastructure investment will still be a relatively certain clue. "Pan Xiangdong believes.

  It is worth noting that although the epidemic has a greater impact on investment, in the first four months of high-tech manufacturing, investment in computer and office equipment manufacturing still increased by 15.4%. In the high-tech service industry, investment in scientific and technological achievements transformation services, e-commerce services, and professional technical services have also increased by 28%, 25.6%, and 12.5%, respectively. This shows that the transition period from high-speed to high-quality development of China's economy has shown certain results.

  Online retail sales increased from falling to rising in the first 4 months

  As one of the “troikas” driving the economy, consumption has also picked up. In April, the total amount of social zero reached 2.82 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.5%, a decrease of 8.3 percentage points from March.

  The basic living commodities grew rapidly. In April, among the retail sales of commodities above designated size, grain, oil, food and beverages increased by 18.2% and 12.9% year-on-year respectively. The sales of consumption-upgrading commodities improved. In April, communications equipment and cultural and office supplies increased by 12.2% and 6.5%, respectively, an increase of 5.7 and 0.4 percentage points from March.

  From January to April, the nation's online retail sales amounted to approximately 3.07 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, compared with a decrease of 0.8% in the first quarter.

  Liu Aihua, director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics of the National Economy of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that although the momentum of consumption return is still facing certain challenges, such pressure will still be felt on the consumer side. However, in the short term, with the gradual progress of resumption of production, production With the gradual return of the order of life, the consumption environment is gradually improving; in the long run, the momentum of consumption recovery is also conditionally sustained.

  Fu Yifu, a senior researcher at Suning Financial Research Institute, said that the consumer market has rebounded significantly in April, which is manifested by the narrowing of the year-on-year decline and the growth of online retail sales. This is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the domestic epidemic prevention and control situation, and the orderly advancement of the resumption of production and production in all walks of life. In addition, various consumption stimulus policies, such as the consumption vouchers issued by various provinces and cities, have also achieved good results. Now, the catering and tourism industries have gradually improved, and they can also promote a zero total social recovery. The online retail performance is dazzling. This is because the epidemic has prompted consumers to "touch the Internet." E-commerce, live broadcast, and take-out have all developed significantly. In addition, the continuous improvement in the sales of upgraded consumer goods also shows that Chinese consumption The escalation did not stop due to the epidemic, which is also worth emphasizing.

  "I think that with the continuous start of consumption such as catering, tourism, shopping and movie theaters, the market as a whole will further pick up, but it is unlikely that retaliatory consumption will occur, and more of it is restorative consumption." Fu Yifu said.

  The service industry is accelerating the recovery of live broadcasts and bringing goods is a hot spot

  In April, the national service industry production index fell by 4.5% year-on-year, which was lower than the 7.5% year-on-year decrease of the total social zero for the month. The production indexes of transportation, warehousing and postal services, wholesale and retail industries, accommodation and catering industry decreased by 5.0%, 6.6% and 33.7% year-on-year respectively, which were 9.7, 8.1 and 15.4 percentage points lower than that of March.

  Liu Aihua explained that the service industry is a multi-faceted industry, not only has contact and aggregation of service consumption, many services are also reflected in information technology-based services, such as online education and remote office in the process of responding to the impact of the epidemic Instead of being affected by the epidemic, it has promoted the development of these industries. "I think this can also explain to a certain extent that the improvement of the service industry production index is better than that of retail."

  During the epidemic, live broadcasts brought goods to become a new hot spot. Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Bingnan introduced at a press conference on May 8 that during the “May Day”, the number of e-commerce live broadcasts and the number of live broadcasts increased by 1 and 4.7 times year-on-year respectively.

  Unemployment rate of 6% in the national urban survey in April

  However, even though the main economic indicators improved in April, the unemployment rate has risen. From January to April, 3.54 million jobs were added to cities and towns across the country, a decrease of 1.05 million compared with the same period last year. In April, the unemployment rate in the national urban survey was 6%, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from March.

  Liu Aihua said that the unemployment rate in the urban survey in April reached 6%, 1 percentage point higher than the surveyed unemployment rate in the same period last year, indicating that the employment pressure is indeed relatively high.

  ■ Outlook

  How will the Chinese economy follow?

  The market is more concerned about the overall trend of the Chinese economy in the second quarter. Liu Aihua said that we do have the conditions, foundation, confidence, and confidence to achieve sustained economic recovery and improvement. However, on the other hand, there are indeed relatively large instabilities and uncertainties, so we still have to stick to the bottom line thinking, seize the favorable conditions in the economic operation to give play to the inherent advantages, release the potential of domestic demand, and help companies overcome the current difficulties. Eventually, the economy will fully return to normal.

  Liu Aihua said that the economy has been recovering and improving for two consecutive months in March and April, which also reflects the resilience of economic growth, and also adds more confidence to further increase macro hedging policies and further promote the resumption of production. From the perspective of some leading indicators, for example, the total investment of new construction projects in investment from January to April has changed from negative to positive, from a previous decline of 22% to an increase of 1.1%, indicating that we have invested in project reserves and capital guarantees. There has been an improvement; in terms of electricity consumption, industrial electricity consumption has turned positive in April. The latest monitoring results in early May showed that the increase in electricity consumption continued to pick up slightly. Judging from these leading indicators, the momentum of our continued economic recovery and improvement is conditional and based.

  "From a domestic perspective, the epidemic prevention and control has achieved major strategic results, but from an economic perspective, this recovery momentum has not returned to a comprehensive normal level, the employment pressure is still relatively large, and the production and operation of enterprises are still more difficult. , There are still more risk challenges. "Liu Aihua said.