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If the new coronavirus has made more than 300,000 deaths according to official statistics, the comparison of the number of deaths compared to previous years suggests a heavier toll.

In Italy, 12,428 people officially died from Covid-19 between February 20 and March 31. But over the same period, the authorities noted 25,354 more deaths than the average of the previous five years. Are these 12,900 "unexplained" deaths the invisible deaths of the Covid?

Assess the impact of the coronavirus

In the United States, the difference is even more striking: on the data for March, a period when the country was still relatively spared, the gap between the official Covid deaths (1,890) and the excess mortality (6,000) goes from single to triple. And what about the 3,706 additional deaths recorded during this same period in Germany, a country relatively preserved from the virus? Officially, 2,218 of them are attributed to the coronavirus. What won these 1,488 more people than last year? In France, however, between March 1 and April 27, 2020, the “Covid” balance sheet (23,291) is very close to the excess mortality recorded compared to 2019 (24,116).

According to Professor Yvonne Doyle, Director of Public Health in England, the excess number of deaths over a given period is the best indicator to determine the impact of the coronavirus. At least in the countries that publish reliable data. "We will really know how touched we have been and it is also an internationally comparable measure," she explains. Would excess mortality distinguish good from bad students in the census of “Covid” deaths? Not so fast, say other experts.

Less routine care?

If strong suspicions exist, it is impossible to say with certainty that these tens of thousands of additional deaths are necessarily all cases of coronaviruses that have been poorly identified. “This excess mortality is due to the crisis as a whole. There can be indirect effects such as an increase in other causes of death because we know that people have gone to health care less, "recalls Michel Guillot, research director at the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), in France. The Italian health and statistical authorities believe that excess mortality may concern undetected Covid patients, but also patients who have died due to the saturation of the hospital system.

According to data from 24 European countries compiled by Danish epidemiologists from the Euromomo project, a peak in mortality is clearly visible in Europe from March 2020, compared to previous years. Not surprisingly, the figures exceed the official toll of the coronavirus in these countries. "There is nothing else that can explain this excess mortality. There was no volcanic eruption, earthquake in Europe… If it had been in January, we could have put it on the flu account, but that is not the case, ”explains Lasse Vestergaard, Euromomo coordinator.

Communication of figures not always clear

The figures are also spectacular in the areas hit hardest by the Covid-19: the number of deaths is multiplied by 2 in Paris or in the province of Guayas in Ecuador, the increase even reaches the vertiginous figure of 568% at Bergamo, great Italian home. The Danish statisticians of the Euromomo project also use another indicator: the z-score (or z-score), which is finer than a simple comparison. The report is clear, Spain, Italy, France or Great Britain display a "very significant excess" of mortality in March-April where other countries less affected by the pandemic such as Norway or Finland show "no excess".

Finally, there are the many countries where communication on the subject is not very transparent. Impossible for example to find a reliable balance sheet in Iran, yet affected since February since the authorities have not published figures on overall mortality in the country since December 2019. In Russia, where officially the coronavirus kills very little, several testimonies told the story of deaths cataloged as “pneumonia” despite positive tests for the coronavirus. And in China, the cradle of the pandemic, the controversy is far from over on the real balance sheet.

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