Headlines: when will the recovery begin?
French Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire at a press conference in Paris on March 25, 2020. Francois Mori / Pool via Reuters
By: Frédéric Couteau Follow
Now that deconfinement has started, how can the economy start up again? In what conditions ? Rediscover the world before? Build a new one?
In any case, it will be hard ... Le Figaro prognosis : " The Covid-19 epidemic, which fell like lightning across the planet, is causing an economic crisis as we see happening. per century. No country in the world will emerge unscathed. For each of them, the recovery promises to be long, painful, costly. But at the time of the first accounts, it appears that France will pay a particularly heavy price to this calamity, says Le Figaro. Wherever they come from, the most serious forecasts promise us a more severe recession than elsewhere, more massive unemployment, more degraded public accounts. (…)For two days, the authorities have been loosening the containment step by step, but our competitors have already started at full speed, the newspaper pointed out. The final price of this test promises to be staggering: having entered the financial crisis in a financial crisis, we will emerge completely exhausted, with a debt ratio one and a half times that of Germany. "
Indeed, there are " risks of economic downgrading ", worries Le Monde . " If the " next world " is the subject of intense debate, French companies will focus in the coming weeks on more prosaic concerns : their survival in the more or less short term. The publication yesterday by the Banque de France of alarming statistics on the extent of the shock provoked by the covid-19 pandemic confirms what had hitherto appeared in dotted lines. The risk of downgrading our economy, which has declined more than others in Europe, is not to be taken lightly and will require the mobilization of all. "
So, Le Monde recommends , " to face the economic shock, France, whose loss of competitiveness does not date from the pandemic, must put in place a long-term strategy by stimulating consumption and focusing on ecological transition. "
The revival, right away!
For the deputy LR Eric Woerth, questioned by Le Parisien , “ the recovery plan promised by the government cannot wait until September. (…) Above all, it is urgent to restore confidence in France, without which there will be no lasting recovery , says Eric Woerth. We must switch now from outright support for the economy to its recovery. Partial unemployment is a good measure but should not become the antechamber of social plans at the time of recovery : it does not encourage companies to take back their employees or the latter to return to work. I propose, says the chairman of the Assembly's finance committee, to transform about half of the gigantic credits devoted today to partial unemployment into lower employers' charges. "
It is also necessary to relaunch consumption, recommends Eric Woerth: “ For that, I propose to lower the VAT on certain products in sectors to be determined. I propose to take over, for the automobile, the scrappage scheme. And that stores can, for a given period, open Sundays very freely, whatever they are. "
For its part, La Croix believes that it is certainly necessary to restart the machine, but on two conditions: “ The first is not to restart exactly as before. The situation we are currently experiencing has at least the benefit of making us reflect on the excesses of the system in which we were before the epidemic. The splitting up and geographic dispersal of production chains have undoubtedly made it possible to reduce costs, but this is expensive in terms of impact on the environment and international dependence. It is a trajectory that must be modified. "
And then, the second condition, La Croix point , “is about solidarity. It is clear that the end of the crisis will require everyone a lot of work. They will only be produced if everyone feels that their weight is equitably distributed. The past few decades have been much more favorable to capital owners than to those who work. An accentuated contribution from the wealthiest appears today to be absolutely necessary for a fair recovery. "
Finally, an essential condition for any recovery, trust ... " The French have resources and money," notes Sud-Ouest . But the rebound presupposes well aligned planets : the recession of the virus, the prospect of a vaccine, robust national and European recovery plans, sound economic choices. And luck. But to cause it, you need confidence, says Southwest, this mysterious factor with psychological but also material effects. As we know, money and ultimately the economy rest on it. For the essential restart of the country to succeed, we therefore want to say: French, trust yourself ! "
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