Will the pandemic change the world's power balance? May 12 17:26

The virus has repeatedly caused damage to humankind comparable to that of “war” and has had a great impact on the international order. The new coronavirus pandemic, which is said to be the "greatest test since World War II". It is the superpower America that has been hit the hardest by this global crisis. In addition to not being able to exert leadership to solidify the world against a common enemy called a virus, the US military, which has boasted the strongest in the world, is also infected. It has been pointed out that a world order different from what it is now awaits after passing through the pandemic. How will the spread of infection affect the world's power balance? We will focus on the two major countries, the United States and China. (Taken by Tsuya, commentator)

The world's worst superpower

According to the statistics of Johns Hopkins University in the United States, as of noon on May 12, 2020 (Japan time), there are 4.18 million people infected with the new coronavirus worldwide, of which nearly one-third are infected in the United States. The world's worst condition continues, with over 80,000 dead and over 10,000.

The debate over changes in world order is happening among experts because the most serious thing is America, which has long been a world leader. Although it is said that the peak of the spread of infection in the United States has been exceeded, the economy has been hit harder than the Lehman shock, and economic activity has been restarted quickly from the viewpoint of preventing the spread of infection. I can't see what to do.

Massive infection in US military unit “symbol of power”

One thing that cannot be overlooked when looking at the effects on power balance is that the virus infection has spread to the field of the United States Armed Forces, which supports a huge military force. Of particular note is the spread of infection in nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, which is the cornerstone of US military strategy and is closely related to Japan's security. A mass infection occurred at the end of March at "Theodore Roosevelt" being deployed in the South China Sea. For nearly two months, the aircraft carrier is still stuck in Guam and can't move, with more than 1,100 people infected.

I have been on a US Navy aircraft carrier for about 40 days. In addition to the personnel who move the ship to the aircraft carrier, there are actually 5000 people on board, including aviation personnel to operate the carrier-based aircraft, but almost all of them are shared rooms except for a few executives. Moreover, most of them sleep in a narrow cabin with three bunk beds lined up like a silkworm shelf. The interior of the aircraft carrier is a so-called "three-dense" lump, and if an infectious disease occurs, the risk of spreading it all at once is extremely high.

In addition to Theodore Roosevelt, cases of infection on aircraft carriers were also confirmed at Ronald Reagan, which is deployed in Yokosuka, and Nimitz and Karl Vinson, which were being maintained on the West Coast of the United States. All four ships, including the Roosevelt, are supposed to be tasked in front of Asia or the Pacific Ocean, so the situation was unusual in that there were no US aircraft carriers available for immediate dispatch in Asia.

About a month after the first confirmed case of infection by an aircraft carrier, the aircraft carrier began to move toward the resumption of operations, albeit gradually. Following Nimitz's offshore training before long-term dispatch, Ronald Reagan also left the quay at Yokosuka Base for a test run for the first time in six months.

At the end of April, at Theodore Roosevelt, which was held in Guam, the crew, who had been evacuated for isolation, began to return to the ship. However, 700 people who were left on board to disinfect and manage the nuclear reactors took off for another and were quarantined for more than two weeks. Furthermore, considering the predetermined process such as training for landing of the carrier-based aircraft, it will take a while before the aircraft carrier's responsiveness system is established again.

In an emergency, aircraft carriers are deployed offshore in conflict areas and in the countries of their competitors, and literally show America's mighty “power” and send a strong message. I cannot deny the decline of.


Although there is a view that the spread of infection in aircraft carriers will not last forever and is not a long-term problem, the absence of an aircraft carrier triggers unexpected behavior of neighboring countries, causing long-term problems in the regional situation. It also has the potential to have an impact. It is also pointed out that, above all, rival China may regard the current situation of "power gap" as a military opportunity.

While the demon's dog ...

In support of this point, China has boosted its activities by taking advantage of the absence of American aircraft carriers. At the end of March when the US carrier's outbreak was revealed, the Chinese Navy conducted a large-scale live-action exercise involving submarines and aircraft in the South China Sea, where conflicts over sovereignty continued. In April, the fleet of the aircraft carrier “Liaoning” advanced into the Pacific Ocean beyond the “First Island Line”, which is China's military strategic defense line, and sailed near Taiwan to perform “demonstrative action” into the South China Sea. went.

The Chinese PLA official news site China Military repeatedly claimed that "the US military is less capable of operating in Asia. The Chinese Navy has the ability to protect the sovereignty and territory of the state in any situation." Published in the.

China has also unilaterally announced that it will have new administrative regions in the South China Sea's South Spratly and Paracel Islands respectively. Among them, in Nansha, the government office of the new administrative district will be placed on the artificial island of Firely Cross Reef, which is promoting military bases ignoring the criticism of the international community. It is clear that China is trying to further strengthen its effective control over the South China Sea while US military activity is declining.

By the way, it was reported that many military personnel were deployed in China to deal with the spread of infection such as Wuhan, but some view it as a limited scale from the perspective of the entire military. According to some analysts, China's leadership places importance on security even during the crisis of the new Corona, and forces the military to carry out its mission first. Although it seems that the Chinese army is infected, the fact that they are still active shows that they are "ready to carry out operations" both inside and outside the country, and the United States, Taiwan, and neighboring countries such as Japan. There may be an aim to restrain.

“Fill the power void”

How are the US troops trying to respond without an aircraft carrier as China becomes more active? In mid-April, an amphibious assault ship US with the latest F35 stealth fighters and Marine Corps units deployed in the East China Sea, which is inside the First Archipelago Line.

The Aegis destroyer Barry was dispatched to the Taiwan Strait, which can be said to be the throat of China, and passed through the strait. The two ships moved to the South China Sea the following week and merged. It announced that the Australian Navy had joined this, and restrained the movement of China.

In addition, an Air Force B1 bomber dispatched from the mainland conducted joint training with the Japan Air Self-Defense Force. Although the United States takes various measures to fill the void of power, depending on the amount of adjustment, it may cause a stronger reaction than China's expectation and excessively increase military tension, so it is necessary to pay attention to the situation There is.

Do the Stars and Stripes "sink in the Corona Sea"?

Although we have focused on the movement of the military in the United States and China, it is not only military elements that affect the world order. More important is influence and leadership in the world. The United States, which has long been a leader in rule making for the international community, has failed to demonstrate leadership during this corona crisis.

President Trump, who has continued to act against international cooperation since the inauguration of the administration with the United States as the first principle, is the best in the presidential election even if the world should unite in the face of a common enemy called a virus. The attitude that can be taken as priority is outstanding.

In particular, at the G7 Foreign Ministers' Meeting at the end of March, the United States was particular about the word "Wuhan virus" at the end of March, and the joint statement was not put together. Furthermore, WHO announced that it will stop funding the World Health Organization. There are some criticisms that the Tedros Secretary-General may question the neutrality if he leans too far into China, but the Trump administration's approach could disrupt the world's solidarity. Trump continues to call the new coronavirus "COVID-19" the "Chinese virus." From the perspective of the big picture, we cannot see the attitude of overcoming the confrontation between the great powers and encouraging solidarity in the world.

Is “Mask Support” a “Beautiful Story” in China?

As America's presence as a world leader diminishes, China is making a positive move. It is developing "mask diplomacy" to send and support shortages of masks to countries suffering from the spread of infection, and is promoting the operation that China is the world's leading player.

We are also actively providing support to European countries, which are allies of the United States. It reached out to Italy, which has fallen into the most serious situation in Europe due to the collapse of medical treatment, before the major EU countries such as the United States and Germany and France. Many Italians and political circles, who were disappointed by the EU's fellows who had been hesitating to support, heard many gratitude for the support from China, and China sent it to the world as a "beautiful story." The responsibility that was the first source of the unknown virus infection spreading to the world through clever use of the cacophony generated in Europe and the United States is the wind.

Furthermore, Xinhua News Agency on March 4 provoked the United States, "If China bans exports to the United States through strategic management of medical products, the United States will sink into the ocean of the new coronavirus."

And on April 8, while the United States suffered from the highest number of infected people in the world, the blockade of Wuhan was lifted in China. The postponed NPC / National People's Congress was also decided on May 22nd. The bustle of the big cities of China is returning and the Chinese leadership is impressing with a complete revival from the corona crisis. China escaped the worst by using strong powers to monitor citizens and limit freedom. Western countries, which have placed great importance on freedom and the rights of citizens, are also putting great restrictions on their freedom in order to get out of this corona crisis. From China, we can hear claims that "the corona crisis proved that a tyranny system was superior to a democratic system."

However, it does not always follow China's expectations. This is because there is a growing sense of caution regarding "mask diplomacy" as a way of expanding its influence by borrowing support. In addition, the Chinese economy was hit and the GDP growth rate recorded a negative value for the first time, and it is expected that the supply chain will be less dependent on China in the future. Also, if the US assertion that the new virus has leaked out of Wuhan's laboratory would be objectively proved, it would undermine the international reputation for China.

Is it democracy or opposition?

The future power balance of the world will depend on how much damage each major country will ultimately suffer and how long it will take to recover. Just as in the past pandemics, the second and third waves of the spread of infection may be triggered by the resumption of economic activity, and the future is unreadable.

In the future, a long battle with the new Corona awaits. After the pandemic has passed, will the world lead by a state that respects freedom and democracy or a more powerful state? What is certain is that there is no guarantee that the world will be the same as it is now.

In this unstable time, the behavior of the nation to mark democracy is being questioned. In order to overcome viruses that do not affect humans, can we take measures based on scientific judgment rather than wishful observation or political speculation? At the same time, what we must not forget is that, while persevering in such battles, we must protect freedom and human rights, and above all, the lives and lives of the people to the end.

Commentator
(in charge of security)
Takaya Tsuya

After working as an international department of the Press Bureau and a visiting researcher at RUSI of the Royal College, he has been in his current position since 2012. During the Iraq war, he also interviewed the US aircraft carrier for a long time.