At the microphone of Europe 1, Nicolas Hoertel, psychiatrist and modeller at the AP-HP, returned Sunday morning to the deconfinement that will take place from May 11 in France. He explains that according to the study he conducted, wearing a mask and respecting physical distance were important, but may not be enough "to prevent the risk of a second peak".

INTERVIEW

Will bad deconfinement cause a second wave of coronavirus in France? This is what Nicolas Hoertel, psychiatrist and modeller at the AP-HP, claims, who modeled the evolution of the Covid-19. Invited to the Europe 1 morning show on Sunday, he wanted to clarify this thesis. "If the parameters changed, it would have a very strong impact on our models", explains Nicolas Hoertel. For example, if the virus had spread from October or November, then the risk of a second peak in the coming weeks would be greatly reduced.

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With masks and physical distance, a 60% drop in mortality

"I am not saying that the second wave is inevitable," says Nicolas Hoertel, "but assuming that the characteristics reported will continue over time, our modeling work makes us fear that there is a significant risk of second peak ". 

In the models made by the AP-HP modeller teams, mortality would decrease by 60% in the coming weeks. "Physical distancing and wearing a mask after deconfinement appear according to our work to be something crucial", advises Nicolas Hoertel, "This made it possible to considerably slow down the circulation of the virus", he rejoices, but maintains the alert: according to his modeling, this "does not seem sufficient to prevent the risk of second peak". 

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Specific measures for "vulnerable" people?

"We must think about other measures", in addition to the mask and physical distance, suggests the AP-HP psychiatrist, focused on the so-called "vulnerable", such as the elderly or those with chronic pathologies. "If there is an awareness that these people need to protect themselves particularly, in our modeling, we observe a scenario where the mortality rate would be reduced considerably as well as the risk of second peak."