Global intelligence has not failed to see the coronavirus coming, but has been ignored by governments. Scalded by the scale of the crisis, the latter could now give them an increasing role in monitoring health risks. An unknown patient-zero, the origin of the debated disease, states sometimes surprised as if out of bed: the Covid-19 has taken part of humanity for want.
But for spies, who are vigilant, "it's a problem of definition and foresight of policies, not services," retorts Alain Chouet, former senior official of the French external services (DGSE), annoyed that suspicion may weigh on his former colleagues. "Epidemics, we have one on average every 5 years, that should have been a concern of the French political authorities".
Reports not taken seriously enough
Confirmation from Professor Robert Blendon of Harvard University, who noted that the American services had long since identified the epidemic risk and "warned President Donald Trump that they had evidence of a potential epidemic in the making".
Services have long monitored health risk. American intelligence, for example, has taken a keen interest in HIV. And "at the end of the 1990s, reports linked health security to the risks of famine, drought, or even war," recalls Damien Van Puyvelde, lecturer in intelligence and international security at the University of Glasgow ( Scotland).
In January 2000, a CIA report took stock of the threat posed by infectious diseases worldwide. All this work "deserved to be taken more seriously" in the chancelleries, he believes.
But in general, regrets Robert Blendon, elected politicians are reluctant to mobilize large budgets for a hypothetical threat. "The real question is whether we will learn and invest, so that in 5 or 10 years, when something like this happens again, countries can react very quickly."
Health risk
The economic, social and geopolitical impact of the new coronavirus is now such that the subject is likely to be added to the priority list of security services, rich in human intelligence, satellite imagery, electromagnetic signals, monitoring of social networks, data. of connections. "These means could be particularly useful when a country tries to hide the scale of an epidemic," notes Damien Van Puyvelde.
Not negligible, given the opacity of the management of the disease by many countries, the criticisms weighing on the World Health Organization (WHO) and the multiplicity of national strategies, often erected by States without consultation with their neighbors. September 11, 2001 had upset the counter-terrorism paradigm. Will the Covid-19 tip the anticipation of health risks into a new dimension?
In Russia, "a new security priority will emerge" predicts Vadim Koziulin, security expert at the PIR center, an independent Moscow think-tank talking about the coming creation of "new departments on epidemiological security" by Russian services responsible for a long time to be vigilant about nuclear and biological risks.
"The shock of the pandemic will generate a demand for new involvement of defense and security actors on these issues, including on the part of the intelligence services", adds for its part the Institute for Strategic Research French military school (IRSEM), in a document posted online on Thursday.
"We are condemned to collaborate and trust each other"
He too arguing that the crisis "cannot be considered as an intelligence error", he noted that it "could revive the desire to acquire biological weapons by non-state actors. It is a direct issue of counterproliferation ”. There remains a question, not so trivial: if vigilance increases, will doctors provide information or will spies be asked to do medicine?
"Doctors like to share what they know, or even publish it, which gives hives to all intelligence officers," jokes Benjamin Queyriaux, epidemiologist, ex-NATO medical advisor in Brussels. The two worlds will have to share information and concerns, insists Benjamin Queyriaux. "If we want to progress, we are doomed to collaborate and trust each other."
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