The Imperial College analyzes the Italian de-escalation: rebound of deaths in three weeks if it returns to 20% mobility

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A new study by the Imperial College of London has analyzed the potential impact measures escalation in Italy , a similar model to the one siguendo Spain a few days behind, and the warning is clear: "If the country recovers 20% pre-confinement mobility levels the deaths could rebound again in just three weeks. "

The authors warn that it will be necessary to maintain social distancing measures and combine them with massive population tests, with tracing of contacts in positives and their isolation to keep the contagion curve at bay and avoid a flare-up .

Italy has started de-escalation this week with the opening of shops and the return to work, and with this starting point the study analyzes the possible scenarios for the next eight weeks, focusing on the potential impact of relaxation on containment measures in the transmission of the virus and in deaths.

Experts estimate that the R number, the ratio of contagions that start from a person, is currently in practically all regions of Italy below 1, which means that an infected person infects on average less than one person. For them, it is a good base to support de-escalation.

No group immunity

However, and despite the very high number of deaths in Italy, which exceed 28,000, the current proportion of people who have contracted Covid-19 does not guarantee group immunity, something that would be indirect protection also for those who have not developed antibodies by reducing the chances of spread.

The researchers have proposed a scenario without pharmacological intervention in transmission, given that there is no vaccine yet, and has looked at the mobility data, which gives an image of people who go out on the street and the time they spend in stores, pharmacies, parks, stations, entertainment venues, residences and work centers.

Their estimate, if mobility returns to only 20% of that prior to confinement, concludes that deaths could rebound at an even faster rate than in the first wave in various regions in just two to three weeks. "Even the slightest changes in mobility are likely to lead to a rebound in deaths and a new outbreak that could be even worse than the first one," says Michaela Vollmer , one of the researchers in charge of the study.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

• Coronavirus
• Covid 19
• Italy
• Science and health

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