ANALYSIS
What if, to stem the spread of the coronavirus, deconfinement resulted in a new containment? This strategy, known as "Stop and Go", could be implemented in France. Because, as announced by Edouard Philippe in his speech to the National Assembly, the date of May 11 chosen by the executive for deconfinement will only be applied if the sanitary conditions are met. But for Professor Martin Blachier, medical specialist in health and director of the Public health expertise, prolonging the confinement would have no effect on the Covid-19.
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Should containment be extended beyond May 11?
"The impact of confinement on the first wave is complete from May 11," says Martin Blachier at the microphone of Europe 1. "To wait would be to keep the lid on the epidemic for another week, so it would have damaging socio-economic and health consequences and that would do nothing for the epidemic, "said the professor.
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Is there a risk of a second wave?
On the other hand, according to the study that Public health expertise conducted, based on data from the Pasteur Institute and the American University of Columbia, the virus would not have any seasonality. He would behave in the coming weeks as he has behaved since the start of the pandemic. "If we consider that the Covid-19 will behave in the same way as before, even with measures like barrier gestures and masks, we think there will be a second wave," warns Martin Blachier.
In this second wave, barrier gestures, tests and the wearing of a mask will have an impact, says Martin Blachier. "It is very effective in flattening the curve as we said a lot at the start of this epidemic," he explains. "If the virus behaves as it has behaved before, these three measures will help slow the epidemic recovery." Without however completely preventing it.
Should we be deconfinely differentiated?
At that time, warns Martin Blachier, "we will have to be careful of people who risk making serious causes. Otherwise the same causes will lead to the same effects", therefore a saturation of the emergency services and, ultimately, a ( re) general containment.
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According to the conclusions of the study conducted by Public health expertise, without a strong policy of barrier gestures, the total balance of the coronavirus could reach 200,000 deaths in France. To prevent the death toll from exceeding 30,000, all vulnerable people should be protected for 38 weeks until February 8, 2021.
Thus, the professor asked to open the debate on strategies differentiated according to individuals, such as confinement by age groups, something that had been refused by Emmanuel Macron. "This is something that must be debated and discussed," said Martin Blachier, however. "I don't understand why we don't take into account the heterogeneity of the risk, and that we pretend that everyone is equal in the face of the virus. There are solutions, you have to see the problem and accept to discuss it."
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Does the solution lie in mass screening?
However, the professor warns: if the tests have an impact on the coronavirus, the entire strategy to fight the epidemic cannot go only through this. Martin Blachier takes the example of the South Korean model, praised for its testing policy. "Testing cannot explain Korean epidemic curves," says the professor. What explains them, he argues, is the significant physical distance.
"We believe that by testing, we will be able to control this epidemic. (...) It is useful but much less than physical distancing or wearing a mask," concludes Martin Blachier.