This is not to say that the disruption of the summit scheduled for April in the Norman format, which Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said before the MGIMO students, was an unexpected event. Kiev over the past two months through the mouths of various officials, including President Zelensky, has carefully changed the order of the items in the package of measures to implement the Minsk agreements. So, the head of the Ukrainian state recently told the public about his plan for the reintegration of Donbass into Ukraine. His proposals do not depart from the interpretations of his predecessor Petro Poroshenko by a millimeter.

Zelensky intends to wait until “troops” are withdrawn from the republics (it is understood that these are regular Russian units), then he plans to take control of the border between Ukraine and Russia, and at the final stage to hold elections in the rebellious region. This sequence of actions is fundamentally contrary to the Minsk agreements. In Moscow, Zelensky’s statements reacted quite predictably. The same Sergey Lavrov said that with such approaches and arbitrary rewriting of peace agreements there would be no Norman meeting.

It is worth explaining here that the issue of the border is fundamentally important. If she goes to the Ukrainian military, then two people's republics will be in the ring of enemy troops. That is, in fact, we are talking about a complete blockade of the entire region. In this situation, no one can stop the Ukrainian hawks from making a new attempt to defeat the armed forces of the DPR and LPR. And given the fact that with the closure of the border all supply channels will be blocked, a long assault may well bleed the republic.

That is why in the Minsk agreements the border is the final stage of the peace process. There is absolutely no reason to trust the words of the Ukrainian leadership. That is, we are talking about a real threat of a new round of hostilities, which is able to take thousands of lives. That is why Moscow insists on the non-alternativeness of the Minsk agreements and movement exclusively within the framework of the roadmap fixed in them.

In order to withdraw the republics from their threatened position, the agreements provide for a special status of Donbass, which grants it the rights of the broadest autonomy with its own armed forces (People’s Militia), authorities and laws. Dependence on the center is minimal, if at all. By signing the contract, Kiev committed itself to securing its status with a special constitutional law. But now none of the current Ukrainian leaders even wants to think about it.

The problem is that the ruling team in Ukraine is under the strongest pressure. It is closely watched by the right-wing forces, who consider the Minsk Agreement to be a surrender to Russia and a betrayal of national interests.

The most interesting thing is that among the members of the ruling party "Servant of the People" there are many opponents of a peaceful settlement. 60 members of the SN faction signed an appeal to the president urging them to abandon the implementation of a package of measures, since this contradicts the interests of Ukraine.

During the year of his presidency, Zelensky never developed a firm and independent political course. Most of the steps he takes are situational, that is, they are determined not by a systematic approach, but by the need to quickly solve a problem that has arisen. As for a peaceful settlement, the president completely forgot about his campaign promise to establish a sustainable peace in the Donbass. As numerous polls show, this is what ensured him the victory in the elections. But the Ukrainian ruler is infinitely afraid of the nationalists, whose electoral support is scanty. However, this is an active group that can bring up to 10 thousand people to the streets of Kiev and organize serious unrest with the use of force, and maybe even weapons.

The logic of what is happening is that war is an alternative to the Minsk process. And she has recently more and more confidently claimed her rights. Shelling of the republics markedly increased. It seems that not only nationalists continue to believe the power option is the only possible one, but the top command of the Ukrainian army is not averse to fighting. The president is increasingly losing power in his own country, and it seems that very different persons and political forces will soon be in charge of him.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.