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Slow but safe. This must be the basic principle of the lack of confinement for which Spain must prepare. Step by step, especially considering that, despite the downward trend, it cannot yet be stated that the transmission of the disease is under control . In the last day, 331 people with coronavirus have died and the number of positives has increased by 4.2% in 24 hours (from 226,629 to 239,199, counting the cases registered by PCR and by antibody tests).

"It is about the number of deaths being very low and contagions, sporadic," says Francisco Guillén, head of the Preventive Medicine Unit at the University of Navarra Clinic. At the moment, this is not the case, "we are in the process", so we must walk with caution, without letting our guard down and observing the results of each movement, without forgetting "that this will not stop until there is no vaccine or herd immunity ( between 60% and 80% of the population) ".

Along the same lines, says Joan Ramón Villalbí, member of the Spanish Society of Public Health and Health Administration (Sespas): "As long as there is no immunization, it will have to be assumed that there will continue to be cases, but that one does not become 300 and For this, it is key that we have the ability to detect and search for very powerful contacts to identify even the asymptomatic of the environment.

However, even if Spain were in this control scenario, "what we have to learn is that there may be a second wave and we have to be prepared to make it as limited as possible," says Villalbí. Just take a look at the world map, landing, for example, in Singapore. His praised measures reduced coronavirus cases to only 200 as of March 15. Some alert measures were relaxed in places such as airports . Now, according to WHO data, the 14,000 affected have already been exceeded.

A second wave

Another photograph is that of Japan's second largest island Hokkaido, which after being a successful case of containment, detection and isolation, the region has entered a second wave of infections. In mid-March, they managed to reduce the positives to two a day. Everything a success. The state of alarm was lifted and in April schools were reopened. It has been around 30 days and the quarantine in Hokkaido has had to be decreed again.

It is important to be very vigilant about what is happening in countries that are ahead of us. This should already be a lesson learned. There are no borders for the coronavirus, nor is there an immune country that can look the other way . For this reason, each step in the return to normality must be well studied and planned, according to our circumstances and capabilities.

However, Guillén points out, "we have to think that there may be a second wave ... My impression is that we can spend a year and a half or two years with alternate periods of relaxation and confinement ."

Non-essential workers are physically incorporated into their companies, children can go outside for an hour a day and the next point of view is the possibility of doing individual sports outdoors. "It is possible that in mid-May measures that involve a relationship between people, such as the opening of shops and the recovery of activities, begin to be applied," predicts Villalbí. "We will have to test slowly, every 15 days, in case a wrong step is taken, go back."

Along this path, since asymptomatic people can infect and " we do not have the capacity to carry out a massive study of the entire Spanish population," explains the Sespas expert, it is necessary to get used to prevention measures: the use of masks , frequent hand washing and safety distance.

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