In the long-standing confrontation between Iran and the United States, the mutual threats of war have acquired the character of "the last Chinese warning." But, as in Tolstoy’s tale, although the shepherd boy often shouted “Wolves, wolves!”, In the end the wolves appeared and lifted the flock. Therefore, when President Trump in his Twitter said that he was ordering American ships in the Gulf to open fire on Iranian boats, if they were approaching, the deja vu sensation was erroneous.

We live in a new world with new challenges. The pandemic, or rather world quarantine, led, among other things, to the collapse of oil prices. For Iran, this is a heavy blow, as well as for other oil-producing countries. But the country is coping. US sanctions forced the Iranians to diversify, to abandon the massive dependence on oil exports. For several days, as Iran emerged from hard quarantine, bazaars and shops were opened, industry was returning, life was returning to Iranian cities. But so far it’s still very difficult for the Iranians, and their attempts to weaken US sanctions, citing a pandemic, have failed. The United States does not mind at all that all Iranians die in agony. Overseas hegemon is quite at hand.

Since last night, the region entered the month of Ramadan, a month of fasting and prayer, when Muslims usually do not fight. But there are no guarantees.

A new outbreak of conflict began a few days ago when American warships in the Gulf began to perform provocative maneuvers near the Iranian coast. Small Iranian boats tried to stop them, being in their territorial waters. It would seem, it is clear who is provoking here - American ships are thousands of miles from America and close to Iran. But the US has a different approach. They believe that Iranians have aggressively approached their military bases and their navy.

In response to Trump’s threats, the Iranians promised to respond. In the event of an attack on Iranian boats, we will sink American ships, the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards said. Judging by the recent launches of Iranian missiles, they can fulfill their threat. That is, huge American aircraft carriers can still be a deadly trap for many thousands of sailors and pilots, as in Pearl Harbor at one time.

However, the United States is not going to backtrack. If a skirmish occurs, its main beneficiary will be Saudi Arabia. It is believed that the Saudis led to a collapse in oil prices, causing significant damage to Russian interests. They continue the inhuman war in Yemen. While their neighbor and former UAE ally went towards rapprochement and reconciliation with Iran, the Saudis are fueling more passion.

For Russia, which has tried in recent years to pursue a balanced policy in the Gulf and maintain good relations with both Saudis and Iranians, this is not very convenient.

However, is it up to convenience now in this very difficult time?

For all its striving for balance, Russia is unlikely to allow the Saudis to take control of the Gulf.

It will not suit Russia and China and the American hitting Iran. Now oil is cheap, but this does not mean that this most important raw material should be in the hands of KSA and the United States.

Russia does not consider the United States as its adversary, but, unfortunately, in the United States, many people in the country's leadership consider Russia an enemy — along with China and Iran. Two are needed for tango, but for warfare, one side is enough to start a war. Can China and Russia allow America to knock out one of the links in this troika? Although these countries are not bound by mutual protection treaties, they have common interests, in particular, to continue their independent existence.

We do not know what caused the pandemic, but Russia and China will not be able to allow the US to use the pandemic to strike Iran.

The price war in the oil markets is part of the same hybrid war in which Russia suffers. The resumption of the war in Yemen puts the KSA under attack from the Hussites, the Yemeni patriots, who have repeatedly attacked the KSA oil fields. This will hit oil supplies and raise oil prices, while a blow to Iran will not affect oil supplies - Iran produces very little, and its oil goes only to China.

President Trump is trying to take advantage of global quarantine and falling demand to suppress the oil giants that are not subject to America - Venezuela, Iran, Russia - and only then move on to a major confrontation with China. But quarantine is a thing of the past - Iran and China have left, and the USA is leaving, if not now, then in a week or two. There is a growing awareness in the world that there is no complete victory over the virus and will not and it will take too long to wait for life-saving vaccines. It’s time to understand that you cannot completely surrender to the fight against the insidious virus, but you need to return to an active foreign policy. And the US-Iranian confrontation should not take Moscow by surprise.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.