A research team from the Khalifa University of Science and Technology in Abu Dhabi has developed a model that contributes to identifying the impact of the emerging corona virus (COFED-19) on individuals, which represents a first step for decision makers in understanding the consequences of the virus spread and the needs of the health sector.
The Future Observatory of the Dubai Future Foundation said that the team, under the supervision of Dr. George Rodriguez, associate professor in chemical engineering, published an article on the model and its results in the medical archiving system, an electronic platform that deals with the work of researchers in the field of medicine and health sciences.
Predicting how the disease will spread and the number of infected persons is necessary in the health care planning process, with the aim of determining the necessary requirements, in addition to assessing the impact of any action taken, as countries around the world vary in their response to the virus according to the extent of technical progress and the abundance of human resources and forces, Which in turn will determine the type of action taken.
The model is based on data collection such as prevalence of infectious diseases, timing of isolation termination, number of intensive care units per million patients, level of individual awareness of personal protection, and number of daily contact with healthy people. Because each country has different requirements, the model adjusts the results according to the data entered.
The team researchers, who are from different disciplines, worked by adding some procedures to the model to determine the most effective way to reduce the spread of the disease. They also evaluated some personal protective devices such as masks and plentiful beds on a global scale.
Our goal focuses on developing an effective and uncomplicated model at the same time, so that it can be updated as soon as data is available, and used as a means to contribute to health policies for individuals, and strategies to reduce the effects of HIV infection, Rodriguez said.
"We have used all available data related to the Coronavirus since the beginning of the year 2020, and we aim to explain the quality of the results, as they are evidence of the model's ability to predict if it is applied with high transaction values."
The model developed by researchers at Khalifa University can identify individuals within groups through the stage of HIV infection and the age group of the infected person, whereby a group of individuals is required to be diverse and within closed borders.
The model relies on identifying individuals on the stages of the disease. Each individual belongs to one of the responses to the four stages of infection.
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Dr. George Rodriguez said in a video: «Here at Khalifa University, we have a specialized research team that applies mathematical modeling in studying the outbreak of the new Corona virus epidemic, through this project we aim to predict the impact of the epidemic when following different types of procedures, such as knowing the level of social isolation (spacing). Social), and the extent to which individuals exercise it, and other important measures are the use of personal protection tools, such as wearing masks or not wearing them in all places, and knowing whether individuals are practicing the process of social divergence, and studying the impact of these methods on the spread of disease and other issues that provide beds with intensive care The amount of tests performed on individuals and try to understand how these actions contribute to stopping the spread of the virus and reduce the number of victims at the end of the pandemic ».
A first step for decision makers to understand the consequences of spreading the virus.