"Positive rate" of new coronavirus PCR test rising nationwide or 19:55 on April 18?

It was found that the percentage of people who were positive in the PCR test for the infection of the new coronavirus, the so-called "positive rate", seems to be rising nationwide.

At NHK, we investigated the percentage of people who became positive among the number of people who performed PCR tests reported by prefectures announced by the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, and the "positive rate".

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of people who have been tested has been publicly announced, and there are cases where tests are not included in private laboratories that do not pass through public health centers, so the positive rate is only a guideline. Has become.

The nationwide positive rate was 6.2% on average from January 15th, when the first infected person was confirmed in Japan to 14th of last month, but recently, the average for the two weeks up to 16th is 12.9%. The number is doubling.

Looking at the regions where the number of patients is increasing by prefecture,
▽ Tokyo had an average of 10% until the 14th of last month, while the average of 2 weeks until the 16th of April Is 56.1%, the highest in Japan.
▽ Saitama prefecture had 6.5% until 14th of last month, but 17.8% for 2 weeks until 16th.
▽ Ishikawa Prefecture was 4.7% until the 14th of last month and 19.8% for the 2 weeks until the 16th.
▽ Fukuoka Prefecture is 0.5% by the 14th of last month and 8% for the 2 weeks until the 16th.

In addition, for municipalities for which some past data has not been published,
▽ Osaka Prefecture has an average of 25.7% for 2 weeks until the 16th,
▽ Kanagawa Prefecture has 19%, and
▽ Chiba Prefecture has 15.6%. .

Expert "Is the number of potential patients increasing?"

Mitsuo Kaku, a specially appointed professor at Tohoku Medical and Pharmaceutical University, who is familiar with the measures against infectious diseases, said, "The increase in the positive rate may indicate that the number of potential patients has increased. One reason could be that many people have undergone testing because of the increase in the number of people diagnosed with the infection as the positive rate increases, which increases the burden on medical care. Currently, I hear that doctors may not be able to receive tests even if they judge it necessary, but priority can be given to elderly people and people with underlying diseases who are at high risk to save the seriously ill. It is necessary to expand the inspection system. ”

Positive rates of other municipalities

Looking at the positive rates in the 13 prefectures in which the infection is spreading, the average is
▽ Kyoto Prefecture was 2.7% from January 15th to the 14th of last month, while it was April 16th. It was 11.4% in two weeks.
▽ Gifu Prefecture was 0.8% until 14th of last month, but it was 11.9% for 2 weeks until 16th.
▽ In Ibaraki prefecture, no infection was confirmed in the prefecture until 14th of last month, but it was 0%.

On the other hand, there were some local governments that did not show a big change.
▽ In Hyogo prefecture, the rate was 10.3% until the 14th of last month, but it was 12.7% for the 2 weeks until the 16th.
▽ In Hokkaido, the rate was 10.7% until the 14th of last month and remained unchanged for 2 weeks until the 16th.
▽ In Aichi prefecture, the rate was 10.9% until the 14th of last month and 9.4% for the 2 weeks until the 16th.

It is difficult to obtain a positive rate including private inspection data

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, the number of PCR tests carried out is reported from private laboratories, but this includes cases where one person has been tested multiple times and is not divided by prefecture. about it.

For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a positive rate including the number of people who have been tested by private laboratories.