A climate demonstration in Stockholm, Sweden, in September 2019. - Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP

Failure to meet the targets of the Paris agreement on global warming could cost up to $ 600 trillion by the end of the century, according to a study published in Nature Communications on Tuesday. The agreement signed in 2015 displays the objective of containing global warming "significantly below 2 ° C compared to pre-industrial levels" and if possible at 1.5 ° C, countries committing to "national contributions" ( NDC) to be renewed every five years.

However, the current NDCs - which were to be revised during COP26 in November in Glasgow, postponed due to the Covid-19 pandemic - place the planet on the trajectory of global warming from 3 ° C to 4 ° C by 2100, according to UN experts. This study details the costs (damage linked to climatic events for example) such as investments (low carbon technologies for example) to evaluate the theoretical losses or gains for the world economy according to different scenarios.

The global economy would benefit from meeting the targets

Failure to comply with the objectives of the Paris agreement could thus cost between 126,000 and 616,000 billion dollars, while the world economy could see gains of 336,000 to 422,000 billion by respecting the objectives of 2 ° C or 1.5 ° C respectively. And non-compliance with current NDCs could mean losses ranging from 150,000 to 790,000 billion.

Conversely, balancing losses and revenues would require investments between 18,000 and 113,000 billion dollars, of which more than 90% from the G20 countries, according to the study. "Implementing a strategy to preserve yourself needs to be aware of the seriousness of global warming to allow advances in low-carbon technologies," said Biying Yu, of the Beijing Institute of Technology, lead author of the study. .


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