How to get out of confinement? This is the thorny question for the governments that have put it in place to stem the epidemic of coronavirus. While Emmanuel Macron must address this Monday evening to the French, a scientific study looks at different strategies of deconfinement in Ile-de-France. Their work, published on Sunday and spotted by the newspaper Le Monde , warns of post-containment risks.
The team of Vittoria Colizza and Pierre-Yves Boëlle (Pierre Louis Institute of Epidemiology and Public Health, Inserm and Médecine Sorbonne Université) developed a model to assess the potential effectiveness of various post-containment measures. It is a question of measuring "the effects of different scenarios, taking into account the type of more or less restrictive measures and the moment when they would be applied", explains Vittoria Colizza to Le Monde . "We tested theoretical hypotheses in this period when collective immunity was insufficient. "
Expected impact of lockdown in Île-de-France and possible exit strategies. w / @laura_didom @pullano_giulia @chiaresabbatini & PY Boelle # COVID19 #lockdown #exitstrategy https://t.co/EbCHWhERqb pic.twitter.com/fHfzph5Jir
- Vittoria Colizza (@vcolizza) April 12, 2020A deconfinement in June?
According to their work, carried out at the Ile-de-France scale, "lifting the containment without exit strategy would inevitably lead to a second epidemic wave that would overwhelm the health system", because the rate of immune population is low. To deconfinate, it is necessary to be able to conduct a very active testing policy, to identify people carrying SARS-CoV-2 and their contacts, in order to isolate them.
Without special measures during the second peak of the epidemic, the needs for intensive care beds would be forty times the capacity of the system in the region, according to the model.
Maintain telework and containment of seniors
According to their estimates, in Ile-de-France the authorities would not be able to test the population on a large scale until May, or June. "A longer confinement until June, would help reduce the pressure on the health system," they write in their study.
Scientists recommend maintaining containment for the elderly, and not reopening schools until fall. The use of telework for a large proportion of workers could also slow the resumption of the epidemic, as could the gradual resumption of certain economic activities. Such measures could reduce by more than 80% the number of cases reached during the epidemic peak, and would save between a month and a half and three months on the arrival of a second wave, compared to the absence of measures.
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