Why does the Corona outbreak in Africa seem slower than expected?

When Egypt revealed the first infection with the new Corona virus in Africa last February, the rest of the continent prepared to bear the brunt of an epidemic that swept Europe and the United States, locating more than 1.6 million infections worldwide.

Health experts have warned of the potentially devastating consequences of the deadly virus in Africa, with most hospitals severely lacking trained medical equipment and teams. The virus has since spread to 52 African countries, but despite the steady rise in the number of confirmed cases, the continent is still far from the global curve of injuries and deaths.

However, the World Health Organization last month warned Africa against facing an epidemic development, even as governments imposed restrictions to curb the spread of the epidemic. The continent appears ill-prepared to manage a major health crisis, as it tries hard to carry out adequate tests to monitor HIV cases.

What is the status of the continent?

To date, the new respiratory disease has infected more than 12,800 people on the continent, and killed at least 692 people, according to a toll compiled by AFP.

The deadly virus has not yet reached the Comoros archipelago and the tiny kingdom of Lesotho in the southernmost continent.

South Africa is one of the hardest hit, with more than 2,000 confirmed injuries and 24 deaths recorded so far, figures that are quite far from more than 871,000 injuries and 71,000 deaths in Europe.

However, experts warn that the epidemic is spreading. "During the past four days, we can see that the numbers have actually doubled," said Michel Yao, director of the Emergency Response Program for Africa. "If this trend continues, some countries may face a massive peak soon," he added.

The director of the World Health Organization in Africa Machidiso Moiti shares the concern, adding that the spread of the Covid-19 epidemic outside the big cities opened "a new front in our fight against this virus."

Are numbers reduced?

Perhaps the biggest question mark regarding estimates of the number of people living with HIV in Africa is related to a lack of capacity to test on a global scale.

Although Chinese billionaire Jack Ma donated more than a million test devices for the Corona virus, most African countries lack the equipment to detect the disease.

South Africa, which has the most advanced health care system in sub-Saharan Africa, has so far successfully tested 73,000 of its 57 million people.

"This is very low in relation to the type of challenges South Africa faces," said South African Health Minister Zwili Mekhiz, who aims to expand the test to reach about 30,000 tests per day.

As for Nigeria, the largest economy in Africa, so far only 5,000 tests for the Corona virus have been carried out for a country of 190 million people.

"The testing system is under great pressure and the results take time," admitted a doctor working in a private clinic in Lagos, who requested anonymity. "Is it accurate?" We do not know".

The inability to test the virus has forced many countries to deal with vague and sometimes misleading estimates.

Kenya, for example, expected the number of cases of the virus to reach 10,000 by the end of April.

But after 10 days of the month, the number of detected infections remained less than 200.

"The reason is that we have not performed community tests," said Patrick Amoth, director general of the Kenyan Ministry of Health. He continued «so we still stand at our previous expectations. We don't know what will happen. ”

John Nkengasong, head of the African Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, admitted that the Corona virus statistics in Africa are far from "perfect." "We lack the means," he declared.

Is the benefit of the closure and curfews?

The late spread of the new Corona virus has given African countries some time to implement the same measures applied in Europe to eradicate the epidemic.
Governments across the continent responded early, closing borders and imposing closures and curfews when a few cases were detected.

These measures were difficult to implement in the poor and densely populated neighborhoods, as houses are crowded and most residents occupy informal jobs, which makes the option of staying at home impossible.

Moiti warned the World Health Organization that it was "too early to determine" whether the anti-Corona virus measures are slowing the epidemic in Africa.

Earlier this week, South African President Cyril Ramavusa said that there was "sufficient evidence" showing that the nationwide closure was "successful".

Was there enough time to prepare?

But the time Africa’s governments have earned can go unnoticed. "There is an acute shortage of treatment facilities for Covid-19 critical cases," the WHO said.

According to the organization, there are barely five intensive care beds for every million people in Africa, compared to 4,000 in Europe.

There are only 2,000 medical respirators in public hospitals to serve the entire continent.

Nobody can predict how much the virus can reach in Africa.

The World Health Organization confirmed that 31 countries on the continent have less than 100 confirmed cases, noting that "containment is possible." But the threat remains.