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A report prepared by the Boston Consulting Group consultancy based on data from the Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center in the US estimates that the closest scenario of lifting the containment measures for Spain will be at the earliest on June 1 , when 11 weeks have elapsed since the declaration of the Alarm State.

The study is based on projections for different countries around the world and on the Chinese experience in Hubei, the province in which Wuhan is located, the origin of the pandemic, where the confinement of society has begun to end after more 10 weeks from the start of the measurements and more than eight weeks after the epidemic peak.

In Spain, the Government estimates that said peak of cases occurred on April 2. Instead, the report, which is dated March 26, estimated the epidemic peak for April 4. In any case, the difference between the two dates is not significant when evaluating the relaxation of the containment measures and the gradual return to daily life without restrictions. The projection of the report prepared by Boston Consulting to which this newspaper has had access gives a fork for said opening from June 1 to July 3 .

The methodology used by the consultancy estimates that the first window of opportunity to lift the containment measures will occur between 10 and 14 weeks after the start of the containment and other containment measures, such as limitation of movement and transportation. The report takes into account the time it took for the different countries to establish the confinement of society, which in the case of China and India occurred on the same day that the tenth death occurred and in most European countries this did not occur until after 10 days in the cases of France or the United Kingdom or 15 in Italy.

The effectiveness of the measures in each country

Spain went a few days ahead of its European partners and decreed the State of Alarm, and therefore the confinement, on March 14, seven days after the tenth fatality due to the coronavirus. The case of Norway draws attention in this chapter, which decreed the confinement of the population 12 days before the threshold of the tenth death was crossed in the country, which places the Nordic country as one of the best positioned for the return to normality, according to the report.

In the least favorable scenario for Spain, the deadline for lifting the measures would be extended until July 3. According to the report's estimates, this period would be calculated by calculating for each country between eight and 12 weeks from the date of the epidemic peak . To estimate that deadline and determine which part of the fork each country will be in, the consultant's experts take into account the Chinese experience, learning the lessons of confinement and the measures taken in Hubei, and more specifically in Wuhan.

But they also make an adjustment taking into account in each case the effectiveness of the measures taken by each government and the capacity of each national health system. This is how factors such as the number of 'per capita' hospital beds, deaths from diseases of the respiratory system, how effective the decisions of each government are and the regulatory quality of each country are being evaluated.

According to the criteria of The Trust Project

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