Data analysis: how emergence in Tokyo has changed with the declaration of emergency

Data analysis How the number of people in Tokyo has changed with the declaration of emergency state April 21, 21:28

How has the number of people in Tokyo changed over the seven days after the emergency declaration was issued? As a result of analyzing and estimating based on the big data of the location information of mobile phones, it was found that the number of people in Shibuya decreased by nearly 70% compared to many days, mainly in central Tokyo. Was. From "Night town" to "City where elderly people gather", we will introduce data analysis results in detail.

Big data analytics

One week after estimating the number of people who stayed in Tokyo from 9:00 am on the 7th, the day the emergency declaration was issued, until the date changed, without identifying individuals based on the big data of mobile phone location information. Compared to the same time on the previous Tuesday (March 31).

Analyzes are made for each 100-meter square and displayed on a map.

The area indicated by orange is an area with more people, and the area indicated by blue is an area with fewer people.

You can see that a large part of the city center has turned blue, and that it has decreased even more than a week ago when the number of people was already low.

Shibuya decreased by nearly 70%

For example, around Shibuya Station. It is decreasing over a wide area, such as at scramble intersections.

During the past month, there have been various movements, such as requests for self-control of going out.

So what happens if we look at the movements of the past month or so, not just in comparison to one week ago?

The change in the number of people from March 1 to April 7 was also analyzed. Let's take a look at the area around the scrambled intersection in Shibuya we saw earlier.

March is almost flat from early to mid-year, although there are differences depending on the day of the week.

The number of people temporarily increased until late March, when it was said that the self-restraint mood had relaxed.

After that, on March 28 and 29, April 4 and 5 when Tokyo requested self-restraint, the number of people dropped at once.

April 7, the day the emergency was declared, was the least populated weekday.

Population was down 68% compared to March 25, when it was the highest.

“Night towns” are even smaller Ginza, Roppongi…

Next, let's take a look at the crowd of the past month in "Night town".

A downtown area with high-end clubs and restaurants in Ginza.

It is the change of the time zone from 6:00 in the evening to 12:00 at night. On Saturdays, Sundays, and holidays, the number of people is greatly reduced, so only weekdays are displayed.

On March 30, Tokyo Metropolitan Governor Koike called for self-restraint to go to a restaurant with entertainment, and the number dropped sharply.

The trend has continued since then, falling to one-tenth on March 19, the most crowded on March 7.

The same is true of the downtown Roppongi area where young people gather, and on April 7 there was a 72% decrease compared to the most crowded March 13.

The shopping district that supports life

On the other hand, if you look at the data, you can see that there is not much change in the number of people in the shopping district that supports the daily life of local residents.

This is an estimate from 9:00 am to 6:00 pm near the Togoshi Ginza shopping street in Shinagawa City.

Except for the fact that there are more people on holidays than on weekdays, there has been little change over the past month.

In addition, data of the shopping district of Sugamo, Toshima-ku, which is popular among elderly people.

On holidays, it seems that there are a few people, but on weekdays there is almost no change.

It seems that there was not much change in crowds in the shopping district where people go shopping for food.

Expert "Continuation is important in the future"

Dr. Yasutaka Mizuno, who is familiar with infectious diseases, said, “If there is data that the population is decreasing, it is likely that individual behavioral changes are progressing, so it is important to continue in the future. It is necessary to keep calling, not just issuing it. "

Regarding the fact that the number of people in the shopping district did not decrease, it was said that there was no problem if it was necessary to go out, but "If possible, reduce the time of congestion to reduce the risk of infection, Once you go home and consider it to be available again when you are vacant, I also think it would be effective for stores to set entry restrictions to avoid crowds. "