For several weeks, the governments of different countries have been talking about collective immunity to the coronavirus. Concretely, deconfinement could be envisaged when a large part of the population, around 60 to 70%, will have been in contact with the virus and will therefore be immunized. Problem: this hypothesis is very far from reality. The Scientific Council estimated in its last opinion that less than 15% of the French population is immune. Collective immunity could therefore not play a role in deconfinement.
"The hypothesis of collective immunity is interesting but seems to be moving away", judge judge doctor Jimmy Mohamed, Wednesday on Europe 1.
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"In this scenario, there would be tens of thousands of deaths"
"We started with a hypothesis of collective immunity of 60 to 70% of the population who should have the virus so that the virus disappears and that we are almost all immunized. In this case we would be more likely to meet an immunized person than "a sick person. But in this scenario there would be tens or even hundreds of thousands of deaths," warns the doctor.
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"Strategies change from day to day"
Jimmy Mohamed believes, like many experts, that it will be necessary to significantly increase the screening capacity of the population to envisage any deconfinement. "The other track would be, at the time of deconfinement, that the virus will naturally circulate when there is a return to work. It will then be necessary to identify sick people much earlier. We will have many more tests available, and [it may be necessary] to use the tracking system to limit a second wave as much as possible, "he said.
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"The strategies change from day to day, what is true today may not be tomorrow," warns the doctor.