The Observatory of the Future in Dubai tried to answer some of the questions that concern many in the current stage, including: What is delaying the elimination of the new Corona virus ... and for how long will it continue, and why has the world contained several epidemics, while (Covid 19) is still unable to contain it?
A report of the Observatory's bulletin yesterday indicated that some people conjure up in particular «the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in late 2002, and how the world dealt with it at the time, as the disease spread in 26 countries and affected 8098 people, but the measures for the health isolation of the injured and examination in airports She was able to eradicate the epidemic in 18 months, and no infection has been recorded since 2004. ”
He believed that it is not possible to eliminate the new virus very quickly as it seems easy to spread from person to person, until it has spread in more than 175 countries and territories, and these statistics show the importance of finding a vaccine for the SARS-Cove-2 virus that causes Covid 19.
In spite of the necessary measures to accelerate the research, such as allowing human tests without preliminary animal experiments, the vaccine still needs a year or a year and a half, and any vaccine requires a global immunization program to prove its success.
The "Observatory of the Future" quoted "The National" that a senior consultant in the fight against infectious diseases and a clinical lecturer at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom, Dr. Bharat Pankhania, stressed that "the presence of a vaccine will change the rules of the game, but it is not easy to develop a successful vaccine."
While Harvard epidemiologist Mark Lipsic predicted, 40-70% of the world's adult population would be infected with the epidemic, until a vaccine appeared. The alternative possibility is that the infected will gain long-term protection, which leads to the so-called "herd immunity", as the pathogen finds it difficult to spread because of the low number of people at risk, and this possibility ensures that the virus is affected during any possible future outbreaks. However, the possibility of people acquiring immunity has not been confirmed.
"The other possibility is that the virus will weaken or become less powerful as it develops, and that happens when the deadly forms die from it as a result of killing the host, so it does not transmit to another person, and viruses often decrease, but this does not happen in the short term," added Phankhania. He pointed out that «seasonal changes such as hot weather in temperate climates may also reduce the number of infections, but it has not yet been determined whether Covid 19 follows the known pattern of influenza.
The "Observatory of the Future" noted that "despite the abundance of bad news, we see some positive news, as the increasing number of cases in some European countries is offset by a significant decrease in the spread of the pandemic in other places, such as China, Singapore and South Korea, as a result of the response of governments in these countries With the disease quickly, taking advantage of its accumulated experience in dealing with the spread of the SARS epidemic and the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), which is why China eased some measures of physical divergence after achieving positive results.
The world is witnessing endeavors to reach a cure and vaccine for the virus, as the World Health Organization cooperates with scientists working to develop about 20 new vaccines, after about 60 days after determining the DNA sequence of the virus, and clinical trials of some of these vaccines have already begun.