On March 31, the US president, in consultation with his operational headquarters to counter the coronavirus pandemic, extended the “maximum social distance” regime by 30 days. Thus, the previous plan of the owner of the White House from April 19 to “start to open the economy” was adjusted for at least ten days.

Donald Trump perfectly understood that his desire to cancel early at least some restrictive measures was impossible to implement throughout the country. But the president wanted to start production and trade again, at least where the epidemic seemed hopeful. Indeed, every day of downtime is a loss for people, companies and the budget. Firms and their employees, despite distributing $ 2.3 trillion from the treasury, continued to go into debt and go bankrupt.

The hope that a balance could be struck between economic and epidemic considerations did not materialize. The coronavirus factor was much more significant. The United States is far from the peak of the pandemic. It is not even clear whether the incidence curve is smoothed out. The previous 15 days of “distancing” (and essentially the same self-isolation) were not enough to reverse the negative trend in the spread of the disease.

Worst of all, the virus began to sneak into the internal states and mortality crawled up. Today, the United States bypassed all other countries in terms of the number of cases. Soon COVID-positive will be over 200 thousand people. With mortality, things are better - 2% of the number of cases. Since the exact number of coronavirus infected is not known in any country, epidemiologists consider the number of deaths per 1 million people to be the most appropriate indicator. In the USA, today it is 12.4. This is only slightly worse than in Germany (9.3), and significantly better than in Italy (205.7), Spain (193.8), Belgium (72.5), the Netherlands (68.1) and France ( 52.6).

Among the states most affected were New York, Washington, Florida, New Jersey, Michigan and Louisiana. However, things are not easy in Illinois, Georgia, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Pennsylvania. The disease is detected in all states. The problem is that the largest coastal cities cannot be completely closed - this will lead to a complete collapse in the supply of the most necessary goods. Yes, it would not help.

Yes, the main blow was taken by the cities of both coasts, but the whole country was infected. Here with the United States played a cruel joke what they reasonably were proud of - a developed airline network and state independence. Each state has at least one international airport that accepts flights from many countries of the world. In most states, there are two such airports. In many, three. And air traffic is not always built through New York, Los Angeles and other large hubs (as in Russia, where before the pandemic it was rightly considered a drawback), but directly.

Crippled America and the cruise industry. Large ocean liners, filled mostly by senior citizens, have become true incubators for COVID-19. At first, it seemed that passengers could be unloaded far from commercial ports and quarantined, but they could not test everything at the landing site, and in the states where the mountain cruisers flew, many initially skimped on anti-epidemic measures.

Even in New York, where the Center for Disease Control (CDC) already in mid-February assessed the situation as one of the most dangerous in the country, local authorities until the end of the first decade of March convinced the population at low risk of infection and called on "to continue to live their own lives" . Later, the same local officials accused Donald Trump of "insufficiently decisive action."

Well, at the very beginning of the pandemic, he was scolded for "authoritarian methods" and ... "racism". Yes, racism - because of the desire to close the borders with countries that are unfavorable from an epidemic point of view.

As you know, in the United States a good politician will never let a single disaster happen (the saying is attributed to different politicians and scholars, but, most likely, it is a paraphrase of the title of the article by psychiatrist Myron Weiner, which, of course, did not mean anything bad ) Republican and democratic leaders, of course, are calling for a united effort in the fight against the pandemic, rejecting party differences. But at the same time, they do not miss the reason to use the global crisis to criticize their opponents.

And here on the nose the presidential election. Who will refuse such a “good” reason to earn political points!

As a rule, disasters and the elimination of their consequences play into the hands of the incumbent president and his party. You have to be a very bad leader in order not to raise your rating on a common misfortune. The president is always in sight in difficult times.

He distributes money, coordinates assistance, addresses the nation with soulful speeches. Frightened or in difficult conditions, voters are unknowingly drawn to the head of the executive branch. Not only because their lives are often in his hands, but simply because faith in the power of power gives hope.

A recent March poll by Gallup showed that Trump’s rating rose in the second half of last month to a record 49% (it was even lower on the day of the inauguration). Moreover, it turned out that 60% of Americans positively evaluate the president’s actions in countering the coronavirus pandemic.

The democratic opposition (especially presidential candidates from the Democratic Party and their headquarters) also does not lose time in vain. They are trying to convince voters that the worst thing that could happen to America in the year of the epidemic is Trump's presence in the White House.

However, this is also the worst thing that could happen to Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders in the election year. Quarantine does not give them the opportunity to actively conduct their campaigns. On TV screens, they appear less and less and, as you might guess, from their home offices. And their main rival every day goes to the rostrum of the White House and communicates with the press. And this communication is broadcast throughout the country.

Two weeks ago, liberal media launched a campaign on social media aimed at “rectifying this injustice.” First, experts and journalists from CNN, MSNBC, The New York Times, etc., close to the Democratic Party, demanded that the president not attend press conferences on coronavirus. Like, Trump always gives false information, so it's best to give the floor to professional doctors.

Then came the “bright thought” and did not broadcast live press conferences at all, because “the president is using this platform for election purposes.”

Well, there is some truth in the last statement. But such is the political system of the United States. Barack Obama's re-election for a second term in 2012 was seriously helped by Hurricane Sandy, which hit New York, New Jersey, Virginia, and several other East Coast states. The White House administration did nothing supernatural then. Moreover, the FEMA agency (an analogue of our Ministry of Emergencies) made a number of serious miscalculations, which then became the reason for the revision of its protocols. But federal assistance was provided to local authorities, and Obama himself constantly flashed in the frame, and his rating increased. His rival Republican (who was then Mitt Romney) could not oppose such "help" from the elements.

Democratic Party analysts learned this lesson and decided not to give the head of state a descent. Liberal media continues to criticize every move by the president. At the same time, Joe Biden formed his own advisory committee on countering coronavirus, a kind of shadow operation that has already published its own plan to contain and eradicate the epidemic.

For the most part, this plan looks like an advertisement for a candidate, since it lists the actions that are already being carried out, it is only stated that "Biden would have done this more decisively and in a timely manner."

In addition, the shadow operation planned to carry out its own daily broadcasts with a story about the epidemic. But so far only one solo performance by Uncle Joe has been posted on the Internet, after which he did not answer a single question from journalists. Now, being on self-isolation, the staff of the advisory committee has not yet been able to organize joint regular (not to mention daily) communication with the American audience.

But the biggest trouble with the Democrats is the failure of the primaries. After March 17, when primary elections were canceled in Ohio, party selection was completely discontinued due to the epidemic. Most states still expect to hold primaries in June, but voices are already being heard in favor of changing the rules of the game. For example, it is proposed to hold a pre-election conference with a smaller number of delegates or to form its composition by local party parties. Media is obsessed with a new idea - to make Andrew Cuomo, the candidate for the presidency of the state of New York. And this proposal is logical in its own way. Of all the leaders of the Democratic Party, today he receives the most airtime. He is at the forefront. He is in sight.

Of course, we all hope that in June-July the world will slowly recover from the coronavirus pandemic. And then the two main issues will be the economy and the post-coronavirus world order. The leading powers of the world will not be able to quickly agree on the second topic. But the pace of recovery in American industry and the distribution network will be Trump's number one challenge. From how he will cope with her, and his re-election will depend.

Thinking ahead, the owner of the White House has already proposed the adoption of a law on a nationwide infrastructure project worth $ 2 trillion.

Quite possibly, this is the last money that the US Federal Reserve will manage to print without any particular consequences. And then the United States will receive two bonuses at once: recovering from the recession caused by the crisis, and updating the fairly dilapidated infrastructure, which will be useful in the face of international competition. Trump will receive his second term. Of course, if the situation does not begin to develop according to a catastrophic scenario.

I think it is no coincidence that the US president told reporters about a "very large plane" with medical supplies from Russia sent as humanitarian aid. Trump did not forget to mention China, which, according to the owner of the White House, also "sent something to America." The world after the pandemic will, to put it mildly, be different from the past. Great powers will have to compete and negotiate.

Coronavirus COVID-19 is a difficult test for all of humanity. But this test, and how the world will develop after it, is a good reason to start a conversation between the great powers. Conversation on the merits and on new principles.

The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.