(Combating new crown pneumonia) Chinese manufacturing PMI rebounds sharply
China News Agency, Hong Kong, April 1 (Reporter Zeng Ping) The National Bureau of Statistics of China recently announced that the March purchasing manager index (PMI) was 52.0%, a sharp rise of 16.3 percentage points from February. A number of Hong Kong economists said in an interview with a China News Agency reporter on April 1 that the data reflected the rapid recovery of production in the Mainland. The resumption of work in the Mainland has provided a good space for the recovery and development of Hong Kong's foreign trade exports, and has further ensured the stability of Hong Kong's material supply.
Wang Chunxin, head of BOC Hong Kong Economic and Policy Research and Honorary Fellow of the Chinese University of Hong Kong Business School, said that during this period, the government ’s determination and actions to resume production have been quite rapid. The PMI in March reflected that the production in the Mainland has recovered rapidly. For reference, because the month was not 100% resumed production, but affected by the epidemic, there have been cancellations of orders worldwide. However, this indicator indicates that China's economy may usher in a "decent" recovery after April.
Wang Chunxin pointed out that China is by far the world's earliest economy recovering from the epidemic. It is expected that economic growth from the second quarter to the second half of this year will be optimistic, and it may become a temporary force for global economic recovery, as in the 2009 financial tsunami.
Mai Cuicai, an associate professor in the Department of Finance and Decision at Hong Kong Baptist University, said that there were two reasons for the sharp rebound in PMI in the mainland in March. First, the mainland's new crown pneumonia epidemic has stabilized, enterprises resume work and production, and many products with insufficient or exhausted stocks need to be replenished. Second, there is a time lag between the mainland and other countries in the world. When a large amount of foreign production came to a standstill, the demand for the production of epidemic prevention products such as ventilators, protective clothing, and masks returned to mainland China.
Mai Cuicai believes that the March PMI index of the mainland reflects the optimism of mainland enterprises on the business prospects of the future period, but it does not rebound to a very high level, only a slight expansion. When the economic activity in the Mainland will fully return to normal depends on when the global epidemic is over. And if the number of new confirmed diagnoses worldwide can be controlled, I believe it will take time.
Regarding the impact of the resumption of mainland production on Hong Kong, Mai Cui pointed out that in the early epidemic, there had been a wave of rush sales of commodities in Hong Kong. Although some of the shortages no longer existed when the Mainland resumed some production after the Lunar New Year, further reinstatement The property indicates that the Mainland has sufficient supply capacity, which can further protect the stability of Hong Kong's supplies. As an international business center, Hong Kong will actually have some benefits, but the problem is that logistics for overseas orders may not be smooth.
Wang Chunxin said that the good process of resumption in the Mainland has provided good room for recovery and development of Hong Kong's foreign trade exports. Furthermore, the normalization of the supply of Mainland materials, such as masks, will play a role in promoting local consumption in Hong Kong. In addition, Hong Kong is also benefited by increased financial demand as the economy recovers. He mentioned that masks produced in China account for about 80% of the global supply, and about 80% of the raw materials and parts of the ventilator are supplied by China. Therefore, China's re-production also has a positive impact on global epidemic prevention. (Finish)