"We don't know" when the epidemic will strike in Brittany, says an expert

• The coronavirus epidemic rages particularly in the East and in the Paris region and seems to be moving towards the West.
• An expert recognizes "that we do not know" when the "wave" will hit Brittany or if it will be powerful.
• Containment measures could limit the impact of the virus in the region, which has so far been relatively lost.

She very early saw the emergence of an "active circulation zone" of the virus in Morbihan, when only the department of Oise saw Covid-19 circulating in France. But since then, Brittany, like its neighbors in Normandy and the Pays-de-la-Loire, has been relatively spared from the coronavirus epidemic. According to data from the Regional Health Agency, about 800 reported cases were recorded Thursday evening in the region. “But we know it's much more. These figures correspond to the laboratory capacity limits for diagnosing Covid-19. This measure does not give the reality of the epidemic, “says Dr. Bertrand Gagnière.

This epidemiologist from Public Health France is closely monitoring the development of the coronavirus in the region, watching for the possible arrival of a peak. "We don't know when and in what proportion we will be hit," said the doctor.

"We don't see an explosion"

To try to prevent a possible “wave”, its services are based on several indicators, such as the number of people placed in intensive care, the number of emergency visits or the proportion of calls to SOS Doctors linked to Covid-19. "All the indicators are slowly increasing, but there is no explosion," says the doctor. In the ranks of medical personnel, there is also a slight increase in the number of patients. "It is gaining momentum," said a caregiver from the Rennes University Hospital.

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The virus which seems to be moving from East to West is currently hitting the Paris region. The director of the ARS Ile-de-France has also recognized that the figures were "dizzying" around the French capital. "The situation is out of control," said Professor Djillali Annane, head of the resuscitation service at Raymond Poincaré hospital, in Garches, in the Hauts-de-Seine. Far from the home of eastern France, will Brittany suffer the same fate? Impossible to say. “There are too many unknowns to say. But if we want to be optimistic, we can have the hope that the containment measures allow us to have the most flattened curve possible, ”says Doctor Bertrand Gagnière. It will take another week to see if this containment works well. The epidemiologist reminds in passing that the region "is already hit" and that the epidemic has set in. "We already have patients, people who have died from the coronavirus."

Another data could help the West of France to undergo a less strong "wave": the weather. With the onset of spring and rising temperatures, Covid-19 is likely to be less easily transmitted, provided it responds like most winter viruses. But at present, scientists cannot say for sure. In Brittany, the instructions are the same as everywhere else: stay at home and adopt barrier gestures.

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