Chinanews.com client March 16 (Peng Jingru) "In the previous Spring Festival, there was a peak period of transactions in the property market, but this year, affected by the epidemic, all sales offices were closed, and first-hand and second-hand houses were basically zero transactions." This A real estate agent spoke in early February. According to current data, the phenomenon of "zero transaction" is staged in many cities.
National Bureau of Statistics released March 16th, 2020 February 70 city new house sales price index.
No transactions in the 19 city property market, no transactions in the 24 city second-hand house
On the 16th, the National Bureau of Statistics announced the changes in the sales prices of commercial housing in 70 large and medium-sized cities in February. Rarely, there were “no transactions in 19 new cities and no transactions in 24 second-hand houses”.
Specifically, among the 31 second-tier cities, 12 cities including Wuhan, Shijiazhuang and Taiyuan were affected by the epidemic, but no new houses were sold. Among the 35 third-tier cities, 7 cities, including Yangzhou, Bengbu, and Pingdingshan, had no transactions. In terms of second-hand housing, 12 second-tier cities such as Wuhan, Shijiazhuang and Hohhot had no transactions; 12 third-tier cities such as Baotou, Jinzhou and Yangzhou had no transactions.
"In February, the epidemic was relatively affected, and the sales department was closed." Zhang Hongwei, chief analyst at Tongce Group, said that our statistics show that as of March 10, some core first-tier and second-tier cities had only over 60% The sales department only opened the door. "
According to incomplete statistics, in order to effectively prevent the spread of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, Shandong, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Henan, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin and other places have clearly stipulated that the sales of commercial housing sales offices should be suspended.
Recently, cities such as Shenzhen have begun to allow housing companies to open the sales department and open the site; the Shanxi Provincial Department of Housing and Construction also issued a notice saying that to ensure that the province ’s commercial housing sales venues and real estate intermediary agencies will be fully opened 20 days ago.
Data map: On February 19th, an employee of a real estate agency in Fengtai District, Beijing worked at the front desk of the store. Affected by the epidemic, the number of on-site inspectors decreased. China News Agency reporter Zhang Yushe
Second-hand housing prices now fall for the first time in 58 months
"In February, the price index of second-hand residential sales in 70 cities increased by -0.1% month-on-year and 3.1% year-on-year. Both indicators showed a narrowing of the increase." Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of the E-House Research Institute, said that it is worthwhile Note that the previous month's price increase of the second-hand housing price index was positive for 58 consecutive months, and was negative for the first time in February.
Yan Yuejin believes that this fully shows that the market is cooling, and landlords are constantly adjusting their pricing strategies to cope with the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic.
"In February, real estate market prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities rose steadily," said Kong Peng, chief statistician of the Urban Division of the National Bureau of Statistics. Mixed.
According to preliminary estimates, in February, the sales prices of newly built commercial houses in first-tier cities remained flat month-on-month, and rose by 0.4% last month. The sales prices of newly-built commercial houses in 31 second-tier cities increased slightly by 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the sales prices of second-hand houses remained flat. The sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in 35 third-tier cities rose 0.1% month-on-month, a decrease of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, and the sales prices of second-hand housing rose 0.1% month-on-month to 0.2%.
"The epidemic did have a greater impact on the property market turnover in the first quarter, but the market's recovery has begun." Zhang Bo, director of the branch office of 58 Anju Guest House and Property Research Institute, said that the national housing search in February of 58anju increased by 23.4% month-on-month.
Data Map: A large community in Dazhou City, Sichuan Province. Photo by Zhang Lang of China News Agency
Will the property market control policy be loosened?
With the reduction of epidemic prevention and control pressure, policies to promote the restoration of the real estate market have been promulgated frequently. Since February, more than 60 cities have issued varying degrees of real estate easing policies.
However, in the urban agglomerations that introduced real estate regulation and control policies, on March 4, Guangzhou's related policies on property market relaxation were suspended; on March 5, Zhumadian's 17 policies for stabilizing the property market have been withdrawn from the official website, which has once again triggered public opposition. Attention to the trend of property market regulation.
"Adjusting policies in accordance with the epidemic is in line with actual conditions, but the bottom line is that housing should not be speculated, and real estate cannot be encouraged or supported in disguise." Zou Linhua, a researcher at the Institute of Financial Strategy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that there are many countermeasures to stabilize the real estate market We cannot go the old way of using stimulating real estate to stimulate the economy.
"The positioning of real estate" do not live in real estate "has not changed." National Bureau of Statistics spokesman Mao Shengyong said at a press conference on the 16th that the implementation of measures based on the city, strengthening and implementing the responsibility of local cities, and the real estate market is generally stable. The situation of stable land prices, stable expectations and stable house prices has initially taken shape. As for the real estate development policy, in accordance with the requirements for promoting high-quality development, real estate is not regarded as a short-term stimulus policy.
Are there places to look around for housing, prices will rebound?
"The impact of the epidemic is mainly postponed buying and selling. Whether it can be recovered in the future depends on whether the epidemic has caused substantial harm to the economy." Zou Linhua believes that if the future economic growth can be restored, the delayed housing sale will also be realized. If the global economy continues to decline, the real estate market will inevitably be substantially affected.
Now, as the sales offices in various places gradually reopen, the property market seems to be lively again. Some media said that Beijing ’s Changan Jiuli, Jinmao International Community and other projects have begun to queue up to enter the sales office; in Shenzhen, after the opening of a housing company, there have also been people wearing masks waiting in line to enter the sales office. Room conditions.
On the 13th, the People's Bank of China announced a targeted reduction on March 16th to release long-term funds of 550 billion yuan. Yan Yuejin believes that the previous RRR cuts have had varying degrees of impact on the real estate market. The RRR cuts have provided commercial banks with more funds and liquidity. "The increase in the amount of commercial bank loans has made it more motivated to reduce down payments."
However, Zhang Hongwei believes that house prices will not rebound so fast. However, looking at the trend of the large cycle, the next 3-5 years will inevitably enter a rising channel. Because market liquidity is relatively abundant, everyone will certainly seek a channel for asset preservation and appreciation, and now there are channels for preservation and appreciation. There are few other channels outside real estate.
"In the short term, if the market recovers quickly in the second half of the year, it may stabilize and house prices will enter a rising channel next year." Zhang Hongwei said. (Finish)