Known as "Hong Kong's gourmet landmark", the treasure seafood seafood restaurant has recently closed. The 44-year-old treasured seafood pavilion, rebuilt in 1976, is a testimony to the prosperity of Hong Kong in the past and a collective memory of many Hong Kong people. From the boom of the business to the gloomy closure, the fate of Jumbo Seafood is a microcosm of Hong Kong's economy under the social turmoil that has lasted for more than half a year. Recently, violent demonstrations have made a comeback, and the industry laments that this will make Hong Kong's economy worse, or it will fall into a severe winter.

Suffering from "Lan speculation" hurts the economy and faces downward

Jumbo Seafood is located in Deep Bay, South District of Hong Kong. It is classical and gorgeous. Many dignitaries such as the Queen of England have visited here. Movies of Bruce Lee and Stephen Chow have also been filmed here. Liang Zhenying, deputy chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, said that he was "heartbroken" after learning of the suspension of Jumbo Seafood Co., Ltd., and was frankly another victim of the "black-out speculation."

Since the second half of last year, there are not a few restaurants facing operational difficulties. The reporter saw in Causeway Bay that within 300 meters, many restaurants had closed. Some Chinese restaurants are deserted even at meals, and there are not many customers. "In March, it is estimated that 2,000 restaurants will be closed one after another." Yang Weixing, chairman of the Hong Kong Catering Management Association, said. Guo Hongxing, Chairman of the Catering Industry Staff Union, said that there are 250,000 food and beverage practitioners in Hong Kong, and it is estimated that half of the existing people have taken unpaid leave in the past month.

Violent demonstrations have subsided in January of this year, and the catering industry has been struggling for months to think that it can warm up. However, recently the mob has started arson in Mong Kok, causing riots, which has made practitioners' expectations of the market's rebound sluggish.

Those affected by black violence go far beyond the catering industry.

The Hong Kong retail economy, known as the "barometer" of the market, has also entered a "super-large adjustment period." Data show that in the first quarter of 2020, the vacancy rate in the core areas of Hong Kong's four major shops was as high as 9.2%, of which the vacancy rate in Causeway Bay was the highest among the four core areas, reaching 12.2%, which is largely due to the frequent demonstrations in the past six months. A direct impact that occurred in Causeway Bay. Lu Zhanhao, a director of the retail agency, frankly stated that many people expressed concern about the resurgence of violence and had no confidence in the future.

Data from the Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department show that in January 2020, Hong Kong's retail sales fell by 21.4% year-on-year to HK $ 37.8 billion. The Hong Kong Retail Management Association Chairman Xie Qiu Anyi said that the situation in the first half of this year was pessimistic and predicted that the overall retail performance would fall by 30% to 50% year-on-year, the largest decline in history.

Violent conflicts do more than Hong Kong

The violent demonstrations that have continued for more than half a year have not only caused the economic downturn of Hong Kong, but also affected the livelihood of the citizens. They have also reduced the sense of security of the citizens and reduced the confidence of foreign investors.

"Many companies have to lay off employees, freeze pay, and take turns to rework, which affects many people," said Chao Guoming, president of the Hong Kong General Chamber of Small and Medium Business. He said frankly, the violence had calmed down a lot during the period from the end of last year to the Lunar New Year. The government launched corresponding measures, and everyone began to hope. However, the violent elements started to undermine the new pneumonia epidemic again. "The troublemakers have come out again, and everyone feels helpless." From the perspective of the social unemployment rate, violent demonstrations have increased the unemployment rate to 3.4%.

A set of figures provided by the police shows the correlation between changes in crime rates and the ups and downs of Hong Kong's economy. In the first half of last year, the overall crime rate in Hong Kong fell by 4.7% over the same period of the previous year. However, the riots in the second half of last year not only offset the 4.7% decline. By the end of the year, the overall crime figure showed a 9.2% increase, the first increase since 2007.

Crimes have risen without falling, and an environment of insufficient security has affected investor confidence. The Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which reflects business confidence, has fallen to 40.8 in December last year and to 33.1 in February. A index below 50 represents a recession. Industry insiders predict that if the black storm continues, the business environment will continue to deteriorate, and investor confidence will be further affected.

"If the violence continues, any industry will be affected," said Huang Jiahe, the chairman of the Hong Kong Catering Association. "Now all aspects have suffered great losses and difficulties. I hope that everyone will remain rational and not have excessive behavior. "

Hong Kong government policy bailout industry proactively responds

In order to alleviate the impact of violent demonstrations on Hong Kong's economy and people's livelihood, and at the same time to cope with the short-term difficulties brought by the epidemic, the Hong Kong SAR Government has introduced a number of measures, and banks, insurance and other industries and associations have also actively responded.

The SAR government announced four rounds of relief measures last year, provided a HK $ 30 billion epidemic prevention and anti-epidemic fund more than half a month ago, and announced a budget of more than HK $ 120 billion in relief measures at the end of February. The Hong Kong Financial Secretary, Chen Maobo, wrote on the Internet that he hoped that through vigorous counter-cyclical measures, Hong Kong's economy could be recovered as soon as possible. He also pointed out that the construction of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the "Belt and Road" initiative and the huge market in the Mainland have brought huge opportunities to Hong Kong.

E Zhihuan, chief economist of BOCHK, believes that the large-scale relief measures of the SAR government are expected to provide timely and effective support to enterprises, and at the same time, the budget will continue to invest resources for social construction and economic development. It is believed that it can promote Hong Kong's economy in adversity. China is moving forward.

At this stage, 7.5 million people in Hong Kong should work together to overcome difficulties and fight against the epidemic. However, black thugs are now on the streets of Hong Kong. Some people continue to place indiscriminate bombs on vehicles such as the MTR to spread panic. Someone threw petrol bombs at the community epidemic prevention facilities, which seriously affected the safety of medical staff and patients and interfered with the epidemic prevention work. Recently, the police detected three bomb explosions, arrested 17 people, and seized semi-finished indigenous bombs and 2.6 tons of chemicals for making explosives. Some have called for Hong Kong to not be a breeding ground for terrorism.

Black violence needs to be vigilant and stop in time. The long-term prosperity of Hong Kong and the well-being of 7.5 million Hong Kong compatriots depend on jointly saying "no!" To violence.

(Hong Kong, March 11, by the newspaper)

Reporter Chen Ying