Should the continued progression of the coronavirus in France be cause for concern? Since Saturday, France has become one of the main centers of coronavirus in Europe with Italy and Germany, with 130 cases since the end of January, pushing the government to adopt a new battery of measures. Invited on Sunday from Europe 1, epidemiologist William Dab does not rule out the hypothesis of a "severe epidemic", and counts on city doctors to relieve hospitals.
Many meetings canceled
On Saturday, the Ministry of Health announced the cancellation of "all gatherings of more than 5,000 people in confined areas", but also that of gatherings "in open areas when they lead to mixtures with populations from areas where the virus is possibly circulating. " On the other hand, the government excludes at this stage the cancellation of the municipal elections.
On the other hand, other measures taken at the start of the epidemic were lifted, including the containment recommended for people returning from a risk zone. Now that France has gone into "phase 2" of the epidemic, the priority of the health authorities is now to avoid excessive population groupings.
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"We have entered another phase," confirms Anne-Claude Crémieux, professor of infectious diseases at Saint-Louis hospital. "There are active transmission zones on our territory. We clearly know that, in these cases, in addition to the measures already taken, which are the search for 'contact cases' and the isolation of patients, there population gatherings must be avoided and barrier measures taken to curb the spread of the virus. "
Will the number of cases continue to increase sharply?
"The reason is to consider all the possibilities, including that of a severe epidemic," says William Dab. "We don't know if it will happen, but there is no reason not to think about it." According to the former Director General of Health, an exponential increase in the number of cases is "the most likely scenario". "Experience over the past 6 weeks has taught us that, over a period of approximately two weeks, each patient contaminates on average two others," he recalls. And while Italy has passed the 1,000 confirmed cases on Saturday, the epidemiologist considers this scenario likely in France. "From the moment we crossed the threshold of 100 cases, it seems inevitable that we will have a thousand in the coming week," he warns.
Can the hospital world withstand the shock?
While the public hospital has been in crisis for several months, could not a sharp increase in the number of cases overwhelm hospital staff in lack of resources? "We have a large hospital supply," recalls William Dab, "more than in neighboring countries". But, he admits, "if there are tens of thousands of patients who have to undergo resuscitation care for a period of several weeks, our capacities will be saturated and would be in any country"
To avoid this situation, William Dab stresses the importance of barrier measures. "They are not going to completely avoid the risk," he concedes, "but it is important that this risk be spread out over time". "We must spread this pressure on the hospital system," insisted the guest from Europe 1.
Another way, according to William Dab, to relieve the hospital, is to insist on the role of city doctors. "It is being organized. They will be equipped with masks", he explains, recalling that "faced with a classic flu, it is the city doctors who intervene". And to assure: "They are quite ready to face this epidemic".