The map of the "possible" distribution of the coronavirus in Spain is now ready. With this new tool, researchers want to anticipate the spread of Covid-19 in order to adopt effective control measures. [Here you can check in real time the risk by communities] .
The project is carried out by a group of researchers from the universities of Zaragoza and Rovira and Virgili of Tarragona have developed a mathematical model that allows predictions of the risk of new cases of coronavirus infection , in a "race against the clock" to contain its spread .
One of the "particularities" of this model is that it also takes into account the contagions that asymptomatic people can do , one of the main obstacles to controlling the spread of the disease. The results of this work have been reflected in a map that will be updated daily through the public access website.
This group of researchers, led by Professor Jesús Gómez-Gardeñes , from the Department of Physics of the Faculty of Sciences of the University of Zaragoza, has been working for years in the development of mathematical models that study the spread of epidemics based on the patterns of mobility of people and in the census of affected populations.
According to Gómez, "the challenge has been to adapt our models to the particularities of the epidemiological patterns of COVID-19 , which have been known in recent weeks."
The head of the investigation adds that "we have taken into account the possibility of contagion of asymptomatic individuals , which greatly hinders the traceability of secondary infections of the cases detected and gives the virus a great silent mobility. " The tool has done with the usual mobility data between Spanish municipalities of the country's active population provided by the National Statistics Institute, "explains Gomez.
As reported by the University of Zaragoza on Friday, " the model can be transferred perfectly to other countries where these data are available."
To anticipate the chain of silent infections, researchers consider it "crucial" to take into account, in addition to the contagion patterns of COVID-19 itself , what is the usual mobility of individuals between different areas, since this is the means to through which the virus can expand its expansion radius.
"This mobility has a more relevant role when the typical period of spread of the virus in asymptomatic people is long , since it directly increases its range of expansion," according to Clara Granell, a researcher at the University of Zaragoza integrated into the group.
The mathematical model in which this group of researchers have been working for weeks takes into account the epidemiological parameters obtained so far, but will also consider the possible variations that will occur in future studies.
The researchers warn, however, that this moment model "does not predict those cases that come from outside the country" nor does it assume that the mobility data it handles can vary, as would be the case, for example, if mobility were restricted between some areas
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