If the trends that are now determining the course of the political struggle in the USA do not change in some almost inconceivable, cardinal way, then the victory of Donald Trump in the November 2020 elections will become inevitable.
The third focuses of the Democratic Party, held in Nevada, culminated in the triumph of the oldest (in September he will turn 79 years old) US presidential candidate Bernie Sanders. He received a record 46% of the vote, leaving far behind both the former donkey favorite Joe Biden (19%) and the young Mayor Pete Buttigic (15%). About such losers as Elizabeth "Pocahontas" Warren and Amy Klobuchar, and there is nothing to say - they lag far behind.
Sanders' victory in itself was expected: the first shock after the results of New Hampshire had already passed, and it became clear that the electoral base of the elderly socialist was wider and more active than that of the candidate from the establishment Biden or openly gay Buttigic who won at the very first focuses in Iowa. But few predicted such a crushing victory for Sanders - if in New Hampshire he overtook the "mayor of Pete" by only two points (24% versus 22%), then in Nevada - as much as three times! This is a serious application for leadership nationwide. “The dynamics of the race is now very simple,” writes CNN analyst Chris Siliza. “Sanders is the clear leader, and all the other players on the field claim to be an alternative to Sanders.”
In fact, Nevada, although far from being the most important state in terms of the number of delegates (there are only 48 of them, but in order to win a nomination at the summer Democratic Convention, a candidate must enlist the support of 2,376 delegates out of 4,750), but it is very indicative from the point of view of national trends. Nevada is considered the fastest growing US state due to the influx of migrants from Mexico and Central America. Latinos now make up slightly less than a third of the state’s population, and almost all of them support Sanders. But their share is constantly growing in other states of the country, so this factor can play a key role in the struggle for nomination.
The hopes of many liberal journalists that the "Latinos" in large numbers will support Biden or, at worst, Buttigic, did not materialize. The authority of the former vice president in their midst is rather low. If we compare the rating of sympathy for Biden among various racial groups, then it is highest among African Americans - as much as 66%, then among white voters - 55%, Asians in third place - 53.6%, and only then “Latinos” go by a large margin - 40%. However, voters of Hispanic descent regard Buttigic even worse - 31.1%. Here the “mayor of Pete” is let down by his sexual orientation - the “Latinos” are mostly Orthodox Catholics. But the index of sympathy for Sanders among Latinos is as much as 57%, however, he generally has a consistently high rating among all racial groups (53% among whites, 55% among African Americans and a record 64% among voters of Asian descent).
Ahead, of course, is still the primaries in South Carolina (February 29), and then the Super Tuesday on March 3, when 1357 delegates from 13 states will vote.
South Carolina is increasingly called the last chance for Joe Biden - in this state, about 30% of voters are minorities, primarily African Americans, and this is the most reliable base of the former vice (if only, at every opportunity, Sleepy Joe, as Trump called him, recalls that he worked not with anyone, but with the first black president of America!). But, as the example of Nevada shows, colored voters are increasingly willing to vote for Sanders. And the polls that now predict a slight advantage for Biden, it’s somehow difficult to believe after Nevada: on the eve of the caucus, they promised Sanders 29%, and he took 17% more. If Sanders takes over Biden on February 29, you can put an end to Sleepy Joe’s campaign.
True, on Super Tuesday (March 3), a new contender for the White House will enter the game - former New York Mayor Mike Bloomberg, whom Trump calls Mini-Mike. Waiting for the time being, Bloomberg will burst into the arena fresh, full of strength, fighting excitement and the desire to crack down on his old enemy Trump.
Given Bloomberg’s colossal fortune (over $ 50 billion), part of which he intends to spend on his election campaign, Mini-Mike can seriously compete with the Socialist Senator from Vermont.
However, before March 3, it’s too early to seriously talk about Bloomberg’s chances - at the recent debate in Nevada, he spoke very weakly and received cuffs from all candidates (except, perhaps, Buttigic). Therefore, now all eyes are focused precisely on Sanders. As Gregory Krieg writes in a CNN editorial, “If Sanders continues to gain momentum and support, he will be able to gain virtually irresistible leadership on Super Tuesday in ten days.”
The attitude towards Sanders is also changing: if before Nevada there was a generally accepted point of view according to which socialist Senator Trump was not a competitor, now the respected publications of the liberal camp write that the panic about Sanders is not based on anything.
“Unlike each of his rivals, he (Sanders. - KB ) has a huge base of ardent, unwavering supporters, which can only grow,” writes Axios. - Here are the facts: a Quinnipiac poll last week showed that Sanders defeats Trump in Michigan and Pennsylvania. A CBS News / YouGov poll showed that Sanders defeats Trump nationally. ”
Some Republicans also agree that Sanders could be a serious contender for the current president. After the results of Nevada became known, Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina) said that Sanders would be “the most difficult test” for Trump in the US presidential election. “If there is another choice besides him (Trump. - KB ) himself, then it will be Bernie Sanders,” Scott emphasized. Yesterday, Donald Trump himself admitted that it would be harder to beat Sanders than other candidates from the Democratic Party.
True to his habit of giving his opponents funny (or even openly mocking) nicknames, Trump calls Sanders Crazy Professor.
Indeed, the 78-year-old socialist from Vermont is somewhat reminiscent of this character, traditional for comics and films of the middle of the last century. Typical appearance of a sloppy Jewish intellectual, glasses in a heavy frame, disheveled gray hair. Add to this the radical economic views - the introduction of a universal health system (far more radical than Obamacare), the introduction of progressive taxation according to the Scandinavian model, the prohibition of offshore companies, the super-progressive capital gains tax on the richest Americans, paid holidays, maternity and maternity leave not only for civil servants, but also employees of commercial companies, the growth of the minimum wage to $ 15 per hour and much, much more, which for American competitive capitalism looks not only alien, but also about wildly.
Nevertheless - wildly popular, especially among young people of all social strata and ethnic groups. Last but not least, of course, because of those points of the program that directly affect the interests of young people: the legalization of marijuana, for example, free training at state universities, facilitating the procedure for obtaining US citizenship for immigrants, support for LGBT people.
But perhaps not only because. Unlike the vast majority of other American politicians, Bernie Sanders is like a living person, not a sleek product of professional image makers. This, paradoxically, is related to him by the current owner of the White House, Donald Trump. He also looked like a black sheep against the background of politically correct and correct republican politicians, and it was precisely because of this dissimilarity that he won the main prize in the 2016 elections.
But this “face is not a general expression” the similarity between Sanders and Trump, perhaps, is exhausted.
One of the memorable moments of Trump's election campaign in 2016 was his sympathy for Russia, which he did not consider it necessary to hide from the media or from his supporters at numerous rallies (and Trump, I recall, gathered stadiums). He did not seem to pay any attention to the critical arrows that not only liberal, but also republican media rained down on his head after statements that “being friends with Russia is good and not bad” or promises “to think about recognizing Crimea Russian ”after the election victory. This firm and principled position, which runs counter to "political orthodoxy," ultimately played into his hands - there were more people among American voters who would like to normalize relations with our country than loud-minded written Russophobes.
Another thing is Nutty Professor Bernie Sanders. When materials began to appear in the American media that Moscow was allegedly trying to intervene in the Sanders campaign to help him win the first nomination from the Democratic Party, and then the elections, the Senator from Vermont immediately gave a rather malicious comment to The Washington Post, in which he demanded from Russia "Stay away from American elections."
“Honestly, I don’t care who Putin wants to see as president,” Sanders said. “My message to Putin is clear: stay away from the US election, as president, I will take care of this.”
The Nutty Professor said earlier about the alleged "interference" of Russia in the US elections.
For example, during the debate on February 19, he pathetically declared: “We all remember 2016, and we remember how the Russians and others tried to intervene in our elections and divide us.”
In fact, Sanders should have remembered something completely different in 2016: how, after the initial victories in New Hampshire and Iowa, when he was the leader in all polls among the Democrats, the Democratic Party and the National Democratic Committee rigged the primaries and deceived the socialist candidate leadership in favor of Hillary Clinton. That’s exactly what President Trump hinted at, congratulating his rival on his Twitter victory in Nevada:
“It seems Crazy Bernie (another nickname for Sanders. —KB ) feels good in the great state of Nevada. Biden and the others look weak, and the Mini-Mike (Bloomberg. —KB) has no chance of resuming the campaign after the worst debate in history. Congratulations, Bernie, and don't let them take your victory! ”
We agree that Donald Trump, with all his malice, looks quite noble. Moreover, he stood up for Sanders, sarcastically reacting to reports that "the Kremlin supports Bernie Sanders in his struggle for the White House." "Why has no one told me about this?" - Trump wrote right there.
Trump's nobility is simply explained: although he admits that it will not be easy to beat Sanders, deep down, he believes that the American voter will vote for the good old capitalism, and not for socialism, even with a human face.
And in this he is right.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.