New virus Researcher estimates Hospitalized patients are reduced by more than 60% due to combination of measures
While there is concern about the outbreak of the new coronavirus in Japan, researchers at the University of Tsukuba performed simulations using AI = artificial intelligence, and as a result of combining various measures such as staggered commuting and telework, patients We have announced that we can reduce the number by up to 60% or more.
This was calculated by Professor Setsuya Kurahashi of the University of Tsukuba, which specializes in simulations using AI.
In the simulation, AI was used to calculate the spread of the new coronavirus, assuming a fictitious population of 1120 people, based on data such as infectivity known so far.
Then, when we estimated how much the number of hospitalized patients could be reduced if various measures were taken, we found that 5% of employees were staggered commuting, avoided contact with people at work and school, and thoroughly washed their hands. 11% of the time, and 15% if half of the staff were teleworked.
On the other hand, in addition to these measures, if all measures such as avoiding contact with people in commercial facilities and waiting at home after fever were combined, the result was that the number of hospitalized patients was greatly reduced to 64%. It means that he came out.
According to Professor Kurahashi who conducted the simulation, "Estimation under limited conditions, but even if one measure is taken, the effect is small. If any measure is omitted, it means that infection will spread. Effective It is important to combine and implement thorough measures. "
Simulation in a fictional city
The simulations assume that some people are commuting by train to two imaginary towns with a population of 560 each, and that children go to school. Estimated whether it will change.
As a result, the proportion of patients hospitalized decreased
１ 1% if you wait at home after fever
５5% for staggered commuting
５5% if you avoid contact with people on the train
７7% if all schools are closed
1111% if you avoid contact with people at work or school
半 分 If half of the staff is teleworked, it is 15%.