This Wednesday, while Marine Le Pen is the guest of Europe 1, Nicolas Beytout returns to the candidacy of Marine Le Pen in the presidential election, while the president of the National Rally is the guest of the European Morning 1.

Hello Nicolas, while Marine Le Pen is the guest of the morning, you come back to her candidacy for the presidential election of 2022.

Yes, the already candidate: it's been a month since the president of the National Rally declared herself. Even though most of the big political beasts only think about it a long time in advance, never had an official statement been made so early.

And why did she decide to get started so early?

Because it is obvious: Marine Le Pen controls the party which she has renamed, excluding her father, Jean-Marie, then Florian Philippot, and keeping her niece Marion Maréchal at a distance. It is therefore the natural candidate, the only, essential. Except that, traditionally, the opposite occurs. Look at Anne Hidalgo: her candidacy in Paris had been obvious for a long time, but she only officially declared herself two months before the municipal elections.

So is there another reason?

Yes, install, lock his match with Emmanuel Macron. These two are paired, they are very satisfied with this pre-announced casting for the 2nd round of the presidential election in 2022. That said, it's fixed: the left is scattered like a puzzle, Jean-Luc Mélenchon is damaged all by itself and the right is still chasing the bulk of the voters Emmanuel Macron had siphoned him off. In the spirit of Marine Le Pen, it will be the revenge of the duel globalization against nationalism, so-called elite candidate, against self-proclaimed candidate of the people. The problem is that it is not enough to say that you are running a race to reach the end. We must prepare ...

And probably make you forget the previous episode, the defeat of 2017?

Yes, and the calamitous debate between the two towers. However, Marine Le Pen must be recognized for its resilience. After months in shock, she got back on her horse. She maneuvered well during the Yellow Vests and strikes episodes against the pension reform. She earns, she works, she understands that her favorite themes, immigration, security, even if they are central, are not enough to make a credible program.

She therefore put aside her promise to abandon the euro and leave Europe. And it potash other files such as defense and nuclear, on which we had not heard too much until then ... Everything is done so that the final of 2022 opposes Emmanuel Macron. Except that ... except that ...

Election campaigns never go as planned ...

Exactly. With a public opinion that could rebel against this pre-choice and bring out a new Macron. Not obvious at this point. There remains a grain of sand which could derail this all too obvious scenario: Marine Le Pen's party is financially distressed: a debt of 30 million euros, from the creditors who are pressing him. She has just launched a call for donations from her supporters. But nothing says to date that this wall of money will be crossed.

This is perhaps why in declaring herself a candidate, Marine Le Pen had this funny sentence: "My decision has been considered, but it is made". A little "but" that sounds weird ...